I'm almost done with this :(

[TROY]

3 minutes ago, Patrick Carlson said:

To any interested parties: after checking with the team again, no, your computer's internal clock isn't connected to the game's chance systems in any way. I hope that adds some clarity to this topic. 

Thanks for that Patrick. I appreciate you taking the time to find that out for us. So, that naturally brings us back to them, a pack of starving wolves, and a gopro.....    

[Thrasador]

54 minutes ago, TROY said:

ok, got lots of things to address here...

First, the age of my rig. I don't know. I've had it a year and a half. Its an older Alienware laptop that I bought second hand. Its gotta be close to 4 years old I'd guess.  As for the other two, one was a desktop/all in on/ everything built into the screen thing. that was old when i first bought this game, but it ran it. Then I bought a small cheap notebook style laptop that barely ran the game, and I didnt play it much on that machine.  To be fair to the issue, I think anything from those two machines is unverifiable and falls into the realms of @Scyzara explanations.  I wanna say this machine came into play around the same time skills were added to the game, and I'm quite sure thats about the time I began my crusade against the games RNG.  But, I know Ive uninstalled and reinstalled it once on this machine. As for the clock, its never kept good time since I got it, but it never bothered me. Its the windows clock im talking about. I dont know how its connected to the clock you guys are talking about. I'm not planning to overhaul this computer until a staff member weighs in on whether this game uses that internal clock or not. At that point, I'll take it to a buddy of mine who knows more about computers than how to turn them on...  

I'm pretty sure the Windows clock keeps time based on the CMOS clock of the computer, as this came up with the search about the clock not keeping time properly, if you read the article I linked for you. The battery on the motherboard being dead is the first solution to that issue. Regardless of the RNG issue of the game, the battery issue is something that should be addressed sooner rather than later. Typically a dead CMOS won't cause a computer to not boot up, but in some instances it can, and has....although that is atypical.

With a dead battery the computer won't be able to retain the time, and it also won't retain any changes you make to the BIOS....i.e. if you overclock the computer or need to change your memory stick latency timings to get them to work, those changes will no longer save, and the BIOS settings will keep reverting to default settings....

That would be one of the issues causing the computer to not boot. One of my custom PCs that I built the motherboard was able to run a faster speed RAM, but only if I made changes to the BIOS to inform the computer what voltage and latency timings to run that RAM with, and the mhz speed of the Front Side Bus (FSB). Without those settings the RAM wasn't getting enough voltage to run properly and the computer wouldn't boot. If I was unable to save my BIOS settings, I would have had a dead PC....so a bad battery isn't something to just ignore....especially for an Alienware computer that is probably running some overclocked settings....they may have reverted to default settings already....

[Thrasador]

https://www.cs.fsu.edu/~myers/c++/notes/rand.html

I still don't believe Patrick's answer, lol....

I think you should get a new battery and fix your clock....

[JAFO]

4 hours ago, Thrasador said:

I still don't believe Patrick's answer, lol....

You may well be right.. but not because the dev who gave Patrick the info was being misleading.. simply because they don't necessarily know about all the low-level hardware interactions that go on. A long time ago, understanding the hardware at a very low level was a fundamental part of programming, but that's no longer the case. The wide adoption of standard code libraries changed all that. Modern programmers rely on pre-written code libraries to handle many basic details for them.. after all, why waste time re-inventing the wheel when you could be doing something more productive? Game-engines like Unity provide a great many of those basic libraries and functionality, for all kinds of things, disk access, opening a window on-screen, putting clickable buttons on that window, random number generation, and almost anything else you can think of.

Most programmers don't know, and don't need to know, how Unity does what it does, only that it does what they ask of it. So.. Unity may well use the hardware clock for RNG, and most programmers using Unity wouldn't even be aware of exactly what it does, only that it works. The dev Patrick spoke to may or may not fit that category, but my bet would be they don't know how Unity works at the base level. They don't need to know, and learning all that stuff would take far too much time that could be better used, for far too little benefit in return.

Therefore...

4 hours ago, Thrasador said:

I think you should get a new battery and fix your clock....

Yes, you absolutely should put a new CMOS battery into your laptop (yes, laptops have a CMOS battery too!). On well-designed laptops, it's not difficult to replace. Open a small panel on the underside, remove the battery and pop in a new one. On badly designed ones, including many big brand-name machines, it may involve partially dismantling the laptop to get at it. I'd hope Alienware machines fit the well-designed category. For the money, they certainly ought to be.

[Thrasador]

25 minutes ago, JAFO said:

You may well be right.. but not because the dev who gave Patrick the info was being misleading.. simply because they don't necessarily know about all the low-level hardware interactions that go on. A long time ago, understanding the hardware at a very low level was a fundamental part of programming, but that's no longer the case. The wide adoption of standard code libraries changed all that. Modern programmers rely on pre-written code libraries to handle many basic details for them.. after all, why waste time re-inventing the wheel when you could be doing something more productive? Game-engines like Unity provide a great many of those basic libraries and functionality, for all kinds of things, disk access, opening a window on-screen, putting clickable buttons on that screen, random number generation, and almost anything else you can think of.

Most programmers don't know, and don't need to know, how Unity does what it does, only that it does what they ask of it. So.. Unity may well use the hardware clock for RNG, and most programmers using Unity wouldn't even be aware of exactly what it does, only that it works. The dev Patrick spoke to may or may not fit that category, but my bet would be they don't know how Unity works at the base level. They don't need to know, and learning all that stuff would take far too much time that could be better used, for far too little benefit in return.

Therefore...

Yes, you absolutely should put a new CMOS battery into your laptop (yes, laptops have a CMOS battery too!). On well-designed laptops, it's not difficult to replace. Open a small panel on the underside, remove the battery and pop in a new one. On badly designed ones, including many big brand-name machines, it may involve partially dismantling the laptop to get at it. I'd hope Alienware machines fit the well-designed category. For the money, they certainly ought to be.

What you said @JAFOis basically what I meant, but didn't feel like writing that much, lol....as I have already wasted far too much of my time trying to help with this ONE issue, lol.

I was reading about RNG systems for C++, Java, mathlab, etc....and I thought, who did Patrick ask? Does that guy even know? Did he understand the question? I had even said if the person he asked didn't write the RNG program from the ground up, I doubt he/she even knows HOW it works exactly....

But I deleted all that part and then left it at two sentences and a link to how RNG normally works and it often uses the intetnal clock in some way to build a seed table that the RNG draws from.

@TROY's seed table potentially having a bunch of zeroes in it because his CMOS is jacked up, is probably why he manages to fail 9 times in a row when NO ONE else playing has that happen but them.

Regardless though as I stated in a prior post above, and as you just stated as well....he really should buy a new $7 battery and pop it in there. It certainly won't make matters worse....and I have a strong gut feeling that his RNG issue will also be magically fixed...

I get the sense that this isn't going to happen though....so oh well...

[JAFO]

9 minutes ago, Thrasador said:

@TROY's seed table potentially having a bunch of zeroes in it because his CMOS is jacked up, is probably why he manages to fail 9 times in a row when NO ONE else playing has that happen but them.

This would also potentially explain why there are a few (and only a few) other players who experience the same kind of failure rates in TLD.. CMOS battery failures are quite rare. Most of the time, they last a surprisingly long time before needing replacement. Considerably longer than the typical life-span of a computer, in fact. But every once in a while, there's one that dies early.

[Thrasador]

I just read on a Microsoft website that average lifespan of a CMOS battery is 3-5 years....so on a 4 year old Alienware laptop it could be dying. Also, sometimes a batch of something like motherboards could be shipped with something like a batch of defective CMOS batteries...sometimes things are defective and accidents happen. Like Samsung batteries exploding and/or catching fire. Defects happen, as does cutting corners.

Another site stated 2-10 years...for the average life of a CMOS battery.

Typically like you said though, due to Moore's law and computers doubling in processing speed and power about every two years, people who are into gaming PCs typically replace them every couple of years...or long before a CMOS battery will die....hence many people not even being aware of them, or taking them into consideration when troubleshooting PC issues....

 

[Thrasador]

Well, @JAFOyou reminded me about Unity engine so I went to their documentation to read about the built-in code and see if they have a RNG package. They do, it's called "Random." If you click on Random, you can read about the various settings and parameters for the random program in Unity....which the devs probably use since this is a Unity Engine game after all....

I clicked on Random.InitState and it brings you to this page:

https://docs.unity3d.com/ScriptReference/Random.InitState.html

Where they explain the seed parameter for their Random program...

If you read it it says this:

"Initializes the random number generator state with a seed.

The random number generator is not truly random but produces numbers in a preset sequence (the values in the sequence "jump" around the range in such a way that they appear random for most purposes).

The point in the sequence where a particular run of pseudo-random values begins is selected using an integer called the seed value. The seed is normally set from some arbitrary value like the system clock before the random number functions are used. This prevents the same run of values from occurring each time a game is played and thus avoids predictable gameplay. However, it is sometimes useful to produce the same run of pseudo-random values on demand by setting the seed yourself."

So even the Unity documentation recommends using the system clock to generate the random number seed for their built-in Random number generator....

They don't HAVE to use the system clock to seed...they could be using any number of things....but even the Unity Engine's built in RNG package brings it up....so they might.... (and I still think they do, lol)

 

[TROY]

@JAFO & @Thrasador  you two guys know more about this crap than is good for you!  LOL!  I will get n amazon tonight and get a cmos battery for this ol girl on its way, and then have my buddy put it in, and then a string of new playthroughs shall commence and I will let you both know the results. 

[JAFO]

Just now, TROY said:

you two guys know more about this crap than is good for you!  LOL!

I'm an IT technician, and sometime programmer since the early 80's.. it's my job to know this stuff.. 

1 minute ago, TROY said:

I will get n amazon tonight and get a cmos battery for this ol girl on its way, and then have my buddy put it in

Make sure of what type of battery you need first.. most machines use a CR-2032 button battery, but there are some exceptions.

[JAFO]

9 hours ago, Thrasador said:

Another site stated 2-10 years...for the average life of a CMOS battery.

In my experience, 8-10 years is very typical. (one of my more recent jobs involved a lot of work with old secondhand computers)

[nicko]

Interesting why you guys are now saying its hardware failure? hate to say it but more of a game player failure? or a bug?

ha better/modern pc hardware will always run faster etc.

 

[stapeliad]

@TROY that actually is true....about it getting boring after a while on really long games. my longest run was a stalker 449 days, I had set out to get 100% completion on all the maps and I did except for Forlorn Muskeg...then the save wipe happened which was fine with me, now I can make an actual map.

After a while once you are pretty firmly surviving it can get monotonous but that being said, any of the absolute essentials should still have a natural resource equivalent (like hats).

It was pretty weird being there for over a year and the season stayed the same.

[CmdrDats]

@TROY, I didn't read every bit of this thread, but I have to commend your perseverance. Goodness knows, I would have given up ages ago.

[Thrasador]

2 hours ago, TROY said:

@JAFO & @Thrasador  you two guys know more about this crap than is good for you!  LOL!  I will get n amazon tonight and get a cmos battery for this ol girl on its way, and then have my buddy put it in, and then a string of new playthroughs shall commence and I will let you both know the results. 

That would be outstanding! I am really curious to know if that was the issue....and you start maybe failing 2-3 times every once in a while...as this is the "norm" for pretty much everyone else playing the game. I am not willing to believe that you are somehow plagued by uncharacteristically bad RNG luck in this game....and only you....that would be very peculiar....

I don’t have a professional IT background like @JAFO. I have a science degree and I am just an intelligent nerd....or dork if you will. I am self taught in building my own PCs from scratch too....

I also like to read stuff on the Internet a lot....like scientific papers and what have you...I believe I am an autodidact...

[RossBondReturns]

2 hours ago, TROY said:

@JAFO & @Thrasador  you two guys know more about this crap than is good for you!  LOL!  I will get n amazon tonight and get a cmos battery for this ol girl on its way, and then have my buddy put it in, and then a string of new playthroughs shall commence and I will let you both know the results. 

Best of luck Troy I hope everything works out for you!

[JAFO]

2 hours ago, nicko said:

Interesting why you guys are now saying its hardware failure? hate to say it but more of a game player failure? or a bug?

Well, clearly it has to be something.. such abnormally high repair failure rates have to have some kind of explanation. And by nature of my profession, I hate being beaten by a dumb machine - I keep working at a problem until it's fixed, or I prove it can't be fixed. Sometimes problem solving is a process of elimination, and pretty much every other possible explanation has been eliminated.

Game player failure isn't a consideration, as clothing repair success/failure isn't under player control. Could be a bug, perhaps, but if so, it's a very rare one. And, as my instincts and @Thrasador's research shows, there's very good reason for thinking a non-working hardware clock could be the cause, as the hardware clock is commonly used for random number generation. Certainly there's nothing to be lost (other than 3-4 dollars) by trying a new clock battery, and it may just work.

 

2 hours ago, nicko said:

ha better/modern pc hardware will always run faster etc.

That's true, but totally irrelevant in the situation under discussion.

[Mike in GA]

So……I followed up with the repairing when I had the little red of eye exhaustion and was able to successfully repair several times. I will keep trying it out, but I didn't fail in 4 attempts at level 2. Also waited until I was almost red starving too, did not appear to impact this at all. 

Not what you wanted to hear I'm sure, just reporting the facts as they happened this time. Perhaps RNG will ding me later when I am full and rested and I'll fail 6 times in a row. 

I did fail 5 fire starts in a row, being wind sheltered at level 3 fire starting skill that same game day though. 

[Thrasador]

36 minutes ago, Mike in GA said:

I did fail 5 fire starts in a row, being wind sheltered at level 3 fire starting skill that same game day though. 

What was your fire starting chance of success at the time? 75%? Were you trying to light sticks/cedar or something harder like reclaimed wood/fir log, or something easier like a book?

[Mike in GA]

I always go with sticks for the higher %. I think I was at 75% each chance. Used wooden matches, tinder plug and a stick. 

[Thrasador]

40 minutes ago, Mike in GA said:

I always go with sticks for the higher %. I think I was at 75% each chance. Used wooden matches, tinder plug and a stick. 

That's a decent fire starting chance...wow 6 times huh? That IS a run of bad luck...

6 failures, or lit it on the 6th try?

[Timber Wolf]

On 8/17/2017 at 6:43 AM, TROY said:

@JAFO & @Thrasador  you two guys know more about this crap than is good for you!  LOL!  I will get n amazon tonight and get a cmos battery for this ol girl on its way, and then have my buddy put it in, and then a string of new playthroughs shall commence and I will let you both know the results. 

I'm very curious to see if this makes a difference for you, I truly hope it does.  Good luck!

[Mike in GA]

It did light on the 6th try, so five failures. 

I was thinking about Troy whilst starting a new run that dropped me in PV. I was failing every other attempt it seemed with fire starting and clothes repairing that first day. 

2nd day was much more favorable with successes in both skills. And again was repairing successfully while being in the red on exhaustion and almost red on thirst. 

I don't know what to tell you Troy.…that's only a few scenarios that I've really paid attention to since I read your initial post. 

[TROY]

well, for anyone still interested in the outcome, I have installed a new CMOS battery in my computer. I wasnt able to get an exact replacement without waiting a week for one to be shipped to me, so I had to do some modifications. (The battery is the same, but I had to remove the wire connector leads from the old one, and secure them as best I could, to the new one).  I will dutifully report on the results of success and failure rates as I play over the next few weeks.  

I would like to add, that since I started this thread, I've been playing stalker/interloper almost exclusively, which is new for me, and I have not had one single occurance of multiple failures.  I have ALWAYS played almost exclusively pilgram or voyager mode in the past.  I have only failed once or twice at stating a fie AT ALL, in probably 4 dozen fires, at 80% (using books) and I have only failed twice in a row at repairing ONCE, never 3 times in a row. Perhaps it IS something built into the lower difficulties, and that explains why so many people never experience it. 

[JAFO]

11 hours ago, TROY said:

I would like to add, that since I started this thread, I've been playing stalker/interloper almost exclusively, which is new for me, and I have not had one single occurance of multiple failures.  I have ALWAYS played almost exclusively pilgram or voyager mode in the past.  I have only failed once or twice at stating a fie AT ALL, in probably 4 dozen fires, at 80% (using books) and I have only failed twice in a row at repairing ONCE, never 3 times in a row. Perhaps it IS something built into the lower difficulties, and that explains why so many people never experience it.

Well, if you have the time, I'd like to request you do a pilgrim/voyager run or two.. to see if the old behaviour repeats, or is gone, now that the battery has been replaced. (And because you had to jury-rig the connections to the battery, can you confirm for me that the clock now maintains correct time and date, please?)