4DON speculation!

[Ruruwawa]

It's the 27th and I'm thinking ahead to tonight's event.  There are some tantalizing clues about the daily challenges listed in the announcement post.   What do you think is coming?

Quote

Daily Challenges
Each day brings its own unique horrors to survive through: brutal weather conditions, tuned wildlife behaviors and spawn rates etc.

Here's my speculation...

Day 1 -  "The quiet dark".  Seems to be best chance for getting geared up and stocking supplies.  In the past there was bonus loot marked by the jack-o-lanterns, so I'll watch for those. 

Day 2 -  Wolf packs.  OK, this is scary!  And maybe new... we haven't had pack hunting behavior before, just individual wolves clumped together.  Do they have otherwise normal wolf behaviors?  So campfires (weather permitting), flaregun, decoys -- and of course killing -- should work against them.  I hope so.

Day 3 - Aurora, aurora wolf, flashlight.  This might be more scary than wolf packs, since aurora wolves are so aggressive and deadly.  Dunno about 4DON but in the normal game they don't fear campfires  and they ignore decoys.  They can be stopped with a bright electric light (like a street light) but simply stopping them is just a stalemate.  Pull a weapon and they attack, so it's lucky shot or a tussle.  To make them flee you need a flashlight and the knowledge (and courage) to use it. 

Day 4 - Fire, what?  Do they mean a forest fire?  Or the aurora setting your shelter on fire?   I hope so, either would be amazing!  Blizzard, np, stock some fuel to stay warm.  Maybe I'll have a nice cave picked out to enjoy my pumpkin pie in, just in case.

Flashlight spoiler.  (Dunno why, but my /spoiler markup doesn't work; everything after the spoiler ends up inside it.  Solution: move spoiler to the end of the post.)

 

1. Using the high beam setting shine the flashlight in the wolf's face.  Keep the beam in the wolf's face for what follows.
2. Stand your ground.  The wolf will get very close before it stops. 
3. After the wolf has stopped, walk toward it until it flees. 
4. Check the state of your pants.

[Mixxut]

I'm assuming that the "fire" on night four just means that the fires you makelast longer

[Mixxut]

But yeah, first night is the preperation day. Dash trough different regions and collect the supply caches (anti-wolf tools), food, clothing and firewood. Also you should probably choose one region as your main place.

 

I'm assuming that the candy bars from night one aren't going to keep you alive so you're going to have to face the wolf packs and maybe use them as a food source. So collect as many anti-wolf tools as you can on night one.

 

Third night is going to be scary so I'm going to avoid moving too much. The food is going to be a big problem though, so get ready for some aurora wolf action!

 

Night four, blizzard. Find those pumpkin pies and lock yourself inside a nice house/cave  and make the biggest fire you have ever made. (I'm relly hoping that the degrees would stay below zero even inside so you're going to have to use fires all the time)

 

The starvation trick is going to probably take a lot of challenge away from this mode which is pretty srupid but people are still going to use it... 

 

Even with the starvation trick, food is still going to be a problem and I don't know if wolves are going to be the only food source along with the candy bars and pumpkin pies.

 

Can't wait to play this, even tough the night one could get kinda boring.

Nice essay, 2/5

 

[Ruruwawa]

Interesting @Mixxut.  I've been assuming the loot would be pretty standard for stalker or maybe even voyageur.  But if we're dependent solely on candy bars or animal kills for food then that's a lot more challenging.  I've been expecting the challenge to come mostly from the wolves.

[Strategizer]

Can someone explain how the save file and Character will actually work in this specific event.

Each day can we create a new save file to survive 2 hours?  Or create 1 on day 1 and try to survive 2hrs each and every day?  If the first character dies can we try the other days?  Etc.

[Ruruwawa]

1 hour ago, Strategizer said:

Can someone explain how the save file and Character will actually work in this specific event.

Each day can we create a new save file to survive 2 hours?  Or create 1 on day 1 and try to survive 2hrs each and every day?  If the first character dies can we try the other days?  Etc.

I guess the speculation thread is a good place to ask, because I don't think Hinterland have said.  I guess we'll know in a few hours.

My speculation is yes, different game files will work for different days.  Slip up, die, and be unable to earn badges during the 2018 event?  I can't see why Hinterland would want to be that harsh.  The event coincides with a sale on xbox/ps4, and they are actively encouraging streamers.  I think they want to show off fun, engaging experiences for the game, not frustration.

[Admin]

5 hours ago, Strategizer said:

Can someone explain how the save file and Character will actually work in this specific event.

You have to use the same save file throughout the entire event to unlock badges. So survive at least 2 real-time hours per day on any 2 days to unlock the Twilight Badge; and 2 real-time hours per day for all 4 days of the event to unlock the Midnight Badge.

[Khan_Drichthyes]

I've had several speculations rolling around in my mind. 

1.  Fluffy eventually comes back to life in Carter Dam.

2.  Once safe areas no longer safe:  Found safety in the fenced in area outside Carter Dam?  Comfortable up at the lake overlook?  Strolling without fear in the ravine area?  Well no more!  I can see those areas being prime spawning points for demon-wolves.

When you really get down to it, anyplace you normally felt safe is now incredibly unsafe.

[Khan_Drichthyes]

3.  All of your hard won candy bars go bad on Day 2, forcing you to go out and hunt.

4.  Bears no longer die with a critical hit, but only run off, like The Old Bear in Wintermute. 

[Ruruwawa]

23 minutes ago, Khan_Drichthyes said:

3.  All of your hard won candy bars go bad on Day 2, forcing you to go out and hunt.

Nooooo!  I have something like 70,000 calories in the fridge right now.

[DaveMcD]

I am expecting Hinterland to prank us in some way. its called "trick or treat" for a reason.

[reginaphalange]

....it would make sense if the "Fire" sets wooden structures on fire, just so I have to get the badge by actually playing the game and not sleeping / boiling water for 2 physical hours.

[Cr41g]

^^^ all I can say about day 4 is stock up on wood / coal... you're gonna need it

[NardoLoopa]

1 hour ago, Cr41g said:

^^^ all I can say about day 4 is stock up on wood / coal... you're gonna need it

My idea for the Blizzard day is that the temps drop precipitously to where a normal file only gets you to -50C so you'll slowly die indoors in your 2-hrs/  So, you need to have awesome clothing finds from the previous day, find coal to stoke the fire above typical temps to assuage the cold, or burn through Stims.  And you obviously need wood to last 2hrs.

[Ruruwawa]

9 minutes ago, NardoLoopa said:

My idea for the Blizzard day is that the temps drop precipitously to where a normal file only gets you to -50C so you'll slowly die indoors in your 2-hrs/  So, you need to have awesome clothing finds from the previous day, find coal to stoke the fire above typical temps to assuage the cold, or burn through Stims.  And you obviously need wood to last 2hrs.

Anyone else play Frostpunk?  It's an arctic rts/city builder with some excellent story and moral twists.  Great art style too.  If you are into strategy games its a good one.  But to your points, the scenarios seem to always feature a monster storm that drops the temp drastically.  IIRC -70c is the mildest of the scenario storms, some scenarios go far lower.  Safe to say it's trained me stock much more fuel than I expect to need. 

One saving grace for day 4: fuel burns twice as long in 4DON.   On the other hand, fire temperature does have to overcome ambient temps or you freeze.

[NardoLoopa]

4 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

Anyone else play Frostpunk? 

Oh, it's on my Steam radar.  When I need a break from TLD it's probably where I'm going to turn.

[Cr41g]

as it stands right now... I expect many...including myself... to freeze to death. I didn't really have enough time yesterday to source and stock up on coal and I have a feeling it WILL be needed to overcome the drop in temperature coming day 4... I imagine that is why we also cannot access DP or FM... as the forges would keep us warm enough to overcome the impending temperature drop

[Ruruwawa]

13 minutes ago, Cr41g said:

as it stands right now... I expect many...including myself... to freeze to death. I didn't really have enough time yesterday to source and stock up on coal and I have a feeling it WILL be needed to overcome the drop in temperature coming day 4... I imagine that is why we also cannot access DP or FM... as the forges would keep us warm enough to overcome the impending temperature drop

Interesting speculation!  I did stock coal but I hadn't considered forges.   I just tried a pot belly stove in 4DON and the max temp I could reach with coal was +80C for the fire, +40C for the air temp.  I know the forge fire temp goes higher (150C I think) but isn't the air temp still capped at 40C there too?

For stocking coal, let me recommend Cinder Hills Mine if you are near CH or PV.  I got 30 pieces there and I didn't sweep thoroughly.  Might be a few more than that.  But shouldn't 5 or 6 pieces be enough to bring the temp up to max?  Then you just need plenty of other fuel to keep the fire going.

[Cr41g]

9 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

Interesting speculation!  I did stock coal but I hadn't considered forges.   I just tried a pot belly stove in 4DON and the max temp I could reach with coal was +80C for the fire, +40C for the air temp.  I know the forge fire temp goes higher (150C I think) but isn't the air temp still capped at 40C there too?

For stocking coal, let me recommend Cinder Hills Mine if you are near CH or PV.  I got 30 pieces there and I didn't sweep thoroughly.  Might be a few more than that.

yeah Cinder Hills is where I will be heading, I will give it a go tonight 4DoN day 2... but being as I will have to start out from Coastal Townsite it may prove to be a bit wolfy from some of the accounts I have been reading. Should that be the case I will attempt day 3 with my super flashlight... as for the +40C air cap.... you might be right

 

**edited.... in fact you ARE right,... max air temp cap is 40C

[Khan_Drichthyes]

I wonder if the radios will start playing spooky sounds and/or music during tomorrow's aurora?

I'd laugh, though, if it started playing the organ piece from The Ghost and Mr. Chicken.

[Khan_Drichthyes]

For those wondering:  The Haunted Organ

[Viking]

Just started on my day 3, but I am increasingly worried for the last day. A combination of a lot of work on day 1 (I put in about 7 hours), and not a small bit of luck (I got all the basic tools, 35+ candy bars, incredible clothing (2, count 'em, TWO expedition parkas), I have myself set up comfy in the camp office in ML. I even have a backup plan, about 25 cedar and fir logs, plus water and candy bars in the cave behind the lake huts. But what will the "fire" for tomorrow mean?? Will it set my shelter on fire? And if so, is it better to risk moving to my backup location before day 4 begins? 

I am torn - I can easily survive where I am, unless the place burns down around me. What is your strategy for day 3?

EDIT: Also, I'd like to point out, that while gathering gear during day 1, I found at least 5 magnifying glasses - well played, Hinterland, well played...

[WildGPS]

Good morning Forum!

For those trying to figure out whether you have enough food/water/fuel, etc. to last 2 hours real time, I did some simple calculations to see what that means in game time.  For those not interested in how I come to this number, the shortest amount of game time that can be run while spending 2 hours in real life playing would be 60 hours, or 2.5 days.

I came up with this by seeing how many game minutes pass in one minute of real time.  I put a stop watch on my phone and boiled water in the game at regular (non-sped up) speed. I found that 1 minute in game time equals 5 seconds of real time.  This held true while extending the time studied, for instance 30 minutes in game time equaled roughly 150 seconds of real time (or a minute and a half).  This tells me that 1 minute in real time takes roughly 12 minutes in game.  Therefore, one hour in real time takes roughly 720 minutes in game (or 30 hours).  That tells me that 2 hours in real life would be 60 hours in game (or 2.5 days).  

Obviously, this is only true if you do not speed up game time in any way.  That means no sleeping, no speeding up cooking, nothing like that.  Also, as far as how many calories (or water, or sleep, etc.) you need to last 60 hours, that depends on how you spend that time, and what Raph decides to throw at us.  Standing still takes fewer calories than sprinting, for example. I am purposefully ignoring the starvation trick, but that can definitely impact this calculation as well. Sixty hours is literally the smallest amount of game time that can pass during 2 hours, so plan accordingly.  I just thought this might make for a handy reference for some players.

Have fun and stay safe out there!

[Cr41g]

I have 33 cups of coffee left and a couple candy bars... sleeping is NOT on the agenda

[NardoLoopa]

1 hour ago, WildGPS said:

. . . spending 2 hours in real life playing would be 60 hours, or 2.5 days.

This is gold.  I was going to do this calculation tonight to figure out how much I needed to risk glowy-wolves to setup my stockpile.

Typical burn times (Level 1 Firestarter):

• 7.5min: Stick
• 18min: Book
• 30min: Reclaimed Wood
• 60min: Coal, Cedar
• 90min : Fir
• 120min: Firelog

Outdoor bonus is about +50%.  (I believe you need to stand "outside" to benefit. If your fire is "outside" and you are "inside" (Cave) you don't get the bonus.  At least that's my understanding, though not my experience).

Therefore, 60hrs is about 40 Cedar logs.

Does anyone know what the 4DON multiplier is?

Also, one could possibly use matches and condition to extend this, by letting the fire die out, suffering cold damage (-20% per hour), then using a lit fire to heal (1% per hour).  So, assuming you start with 100% on Day 4 and are instantly afflicted with cold-damage (because #4DON stuff), you could reduce burn time needed by: 8hrs, at least.  (suffer damage 4hrs, burn fire for 40hrs, suffer for 2hrs, burn fire for 12hrs, suffer for 2hrs = 60hrs).  With stims you can extend that even further (~45mins /stim with coffee to mitigate exhaustion damage).

So, that's 52hrs of fire without the 4DON multipler.