More loot randomness

[Sito]

Hinterland has made such a great game that i play it over and over again. I dont think they knew what a success survival mode would be to a bunch of core players.

With that as a preamble, I know every rifle and revolver spawn location. And every sapling (although doing the FC achivement i found a few more.)

I think we all love looting and the first time i found a rifle in the back seat of a car was golden. When HRV came out and i found a rifle propped against a tree on some hill that i had no reason to climb was platinum! 

More of that would be really welcome for me. I know Lopers talk about the 4 loot tables and guaranteed matches at certain locations. Maybe that is needed to not make Loper more difficult but maybe Lopers would actually like more randomness too. I dont know. But after playing some 3700 hours I know exactly where to not bother looking for stuff. For example, in ML i know for a certainty that there is nothing up those ridges that circle around Trappers, and that follow the tracks. So i have no incentive to go look, and that sort of deminishes the excitement of a new run for me.

( I know I have spelling mistakes. English spelling is dumb! Even though it is my first language I cant really make sense of it. But then I also dont know my left from my right.)

[Old Hermit]

I see your point. I totally agree, and i extend it to other random generated contents, like the ruined cabins around the map, or some abandoned campfires. That is a great feature.

I wonder if there would be nice to have some cars randomized too (most of them could be pre-defined, of course). You could find a car, a truck or none, adding randomness to loot, shelter and storage on some locations.

Unique experiences on each gameplay. I love it.

[Syraith]

I agree there could be some different coding to the weapon drops. I can’t say how frustrated I get going from potential spawn to potential spawn just to find ammo instead of the weapon. Still handy but have priority to some “obvious” spots like gun mounts, next to bodies in dangerous animal areas (near bear caves for example) and like you say, those golden moments like next to a tree.

It can get “dangerous” as you don’t want to make it too random that you don’t find one until you’re exploring your 6th region but there are variables you can use to increase specific drop chances.

[peteloud]

The basic concept of the game is that of an unequipped aviator crashing in unknown territory.  I think it is a great concept. 

If the player knows where to find resources the nature and challenge of the game change greatly.  If the randomness algorithms were completely revised, so that players could not know what to find where, so that loot tables or experience in playing earlier games gave no useful info. on where to find resources then the original concept would be restored.

Something similar could be done with caves.   Many more caves could be built into the system, but only a random selection activated in any game.

It would be fascinating to play such a game, it would be very challenging.  It would be so nerve-wracking and suspense-filled I'd worry about dying of a heart attack.

 

Addendum.

There is a problem with what I have suggested.  Many people get great satisfaction from finding spoilers and mods and having an easy game.  If the game is made too challenging then those 'soft' players might not buy, and not encourage their friends to buy, TLD.  Too survive HTL needs sales and perhaps has to compromise and keep a 'soft' option for many players. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by peteloud

[Syraith]

55 minutes ago, peteloud said:

Something similar could be done with caves.   Many more caves could be built into the system, but only a random selection activated in any game.

I agree more randomness could add to the challenge and obviously those that have playing for years could probably draw perfect topographical maps of each region from memory, but if we say some random cave spawning, then you’d kinda have to say the same about buildings and other structures.

Its kind of a catch 22, there are many reasons to keep it the same (immersion, for some explainable reason you know the land, the first time through “should” be the story mode to get familiar in a designed manner, and do on) but same could be said to change it, as you state.

From a programming perspective, it would be a challenge. But has obvious reward/value from it even if it’s a custom option you can enable.

[UpUpAway95]

All for 100% random loot, including matches on Interloper.  If they think it's too tough, then I'd like a specific toggle in the custom menu to include/exclude 1 box of matches and another separate toggle to include/exclude a bedroll in the players inventory.  That is, I'd like to see these two items singled out rather than included/excluded together in the Starting Gear Allocation setting.  That is, players starting with better clothing being able to opt to start without matches or without a bedroll if they so desire.

[UpUpAway95]

25 minutes ago, Syraith said:

I agree more randomness could add to the challenge and obviously those that have playing for years could probably draw perfect topographical maps of each region from memory, but if we say some random cave spawning, then you’d kinda have to say the same about buildings and other structures.

Its kind of a catch 22, there are many reasons to keep it the same (immersion, for some explainable reason you know the land, the first time through “should” be the story mode to get familiar in a designed manner, and do on) but same could be said to change it, as you state.

From a programming perspective, it would be a challenge. But has obvious reward/value from it even if it’s a custom option you can enable.

I don't think caves should be randomized at all.  The maps in this game are set pieces of art... not system generated ones.  Moving caves about is just going to generate more bugs... caves plopped down by the system is illogical places or worse... places that block access to areas, etc.  If they want to go with system-generated settings... that's something for another new game (i.e. going the NMS route).

A more immersive start, would plop down some plane wreckage at the location where the player spawns... including an emergency supply case inside that wreckage that would include supplies based on the player's selected starting gear allocation.  Realistically, in Canada, pilots must be prepared to survive for a reasonable length of expected time for a rescue based on whatever area of Canada their flight plan takes them.  It's the law... so it's unthinkable that MacKenzie would not have at least some means of starting a fire, some food, and a bedroll... but this is a game after all.  A pilot would also always have some form of map (i.e. aviation chart) for all the areas he/she is flying over.

Edited April 10, 2021 by UpUpAway95

[peteloud]

1 hour ago, Syraith said:

. . . then you’d kinda have to say the same about buildings and other structures.

. . . .

Why?  

I'd be content, initially, to see resources and caves randomised to make them unpredictable.

[Syraith]

21 minutes ago, peteloud said:

Why?  

I'd be content, initially, to see resources and caves randomised to make them unpredictable.

Personally, I rarely use caves unless in areas with little to no man made structures. Buildings have better cover, better loot, are mostly more plentiful, and easier to memorize locations.

I don’t see random caves being a major game changer on their own. Just my opinion though from my experience. It would be much more devastating to (for example) be in the midst of a blizzard in PV and heading toward the barn or farmstead to see it had been moved than a cave I’m looking for. Structures are my safety net, not caves. 
 

1 hour ago, UpUpAway95 said:

I don't think caves should be randomized at all.  The maps in this game are set pieces of art... not system generated ones.  Moving caves about is just going to generate more bugs... caves plopped down by the system is illogical places or worse... places that block access to areas, etc.  If they want to go with system-generated settings... that's something for another new game (i.e. going the NMS route).

You CAN with what they have already, just would be annoyingly time consuming. You would just have to have cutout sections of mountain/rock/ground as a game object and caves as other objects. Cut out areas where caves could spawn (the opening would have to match the spawn objects) and then just generate the cave or wall depending on how it’s coded. Again, very time consuming as almost each one would have to be custom textured to make sure it isn’t an obvious spawn area, but very doable. Just not practical unless like you say, it’s done from the beginning.

[UpUpAway95]

57 minutes ago, Syraith said:

Personally, I rarely use caves unless in areas with little to no man made structures. Buildings have better cover, better loot, are mostly more plentiful, and easier to memorize locations.

I don’t see random caves being a major game changer on their own. Just my opinion though from my experience. It would be much more devastating to (for example) be in the midst of a blizzard in PV and heading toward the barn or farmstead to see it had been moved than a cave I’m looking for. Structures are my safety net, not caves. 
 

You CAN with what they have already, just would be annoyingly time consuming. You would just have to have cutout sections of mountain/rock/ground as a game object and caves as other objects. Cut out areas where caves could spawn (the opening would have to match the spawn objects) and then just generate the cave or wall depending on how it’s coded. Again, very time consuming as almost each one would have to be custom textured to make sure it isn’t an obvious spawn area, but very doable. Just not practical unless like you say, it’s done from the beginning.

I really hate the idea of terrain being moved around in a game.  It's not logical for the setpiece to be sacrificed for the sake of trying to surprise people who play the game so much they memorize everything.  It would be better if, like some of the houses can be randomly burned down now, some of the caves could be randomly blocked by shrubbery grown over the entrance (or fallen trees)... such that the cave could be accessed perhaps, but only with a hatchet.  That would foil some Lopers at least until they got to a forge.  They could also get more aggressive with the burned houses such that, on Loper, the player could find all of them burned rather than counting on one of the group still standing.  They could even make some of the more notable structures subject to being randomly burned out... imagine finding only a burned out shell of the Camp Office.  With total randomized loot, it would also be completely possible for a primary loot location (say, like Gray Mother's house) to have absolutely nothing in it.  it would just be the luck of the RNG whether or not any particular zone even contained a box of matches.  Conceivably, entire maps might spawn without any heavy hammer, etc.  If Loper's want chaos, I'm happy to give it them.  Heck, all they'd really have to do is take the warmth bonus out of the caves randomly (the complaints AC got when it was first introduced about that proves it).

Edited April 10, 2021 by UpUpAway95

[peteloud]

3 minutes ago, UpUpAway95 said:

. . .  With total randomized loot, it would also be completely possible for a primary loot location (say, like Gray Mother's house) to have absolutely nothing in it.  . . .

I am sure that the HTL guys would be able to come up with a system of randomisation that avoids obvious problems like that. 

[UpUpAway95]

18 minutes ago, peteloud said:

I am sure that the HTL guys would be able to come up with a system of randomisation that avoids obvious problems like that. 

You don't get it... I don't see it as a problem.  Luck has a place in gaming... and if that means that, on higher difficulties, so-called "essential" items might not spawn into a map at all... then so be it.  Play until you discover you're stumped and start a new run... just like in solitaire... not every shuffle of the cards is a "beatable" game. 

I'm sure there are a lot of people who would hate it, so yeah, I'm sure HTL can do things in a less random fashion and still accomplish more variety if they want to.  Fact is, there are always going to be people who figure out ways to decode any non-random system they come up with or who play until they have everything memorized cold... and then whine because they are no longer surprised by anything in the game. 

Even with only 4 loot tables on Loper, I still can refuse to memorize where stuff is and I can still play to look in all the containers and corpses I can explore to find rather than just bolting to the same locations every run.  I don't think those tables are even being expanded to include AC are they?  There are currently  enough random locations that I can be surprised to find something each an every run... and each new zone adds more.

As far as I can see, there is certainly no problem with the game keeping its setpieces set.  As I said, caves can more easily be found blocked by something than moved.  Some buildings in the game are already found randomly burned.  Other major ones could be changed on the inside to be found totally gutted (no beds or containers inside) without even altering how they appear on the outside at all.

[peteloud]

45 minutes ago, UpUpAway95 said:

. . . Even with only 4 loot tables on Loper, I still can refuse to memorize where stuff is and I can still play to look in all the containers and corpses I can explore to find rather than just bolting to the same locations every run.  I don't think those tables are even being expanded to include AC are they?  . . .

I have never seen a loot table.  I don't use mods, maps, loot tables, or spoiler websites.  I play the games as HTL designed it to be played.

[UpUpAway95]

1 hour ago, peteloud said:

I have never seen a loot table.  I don't use mods, maps, loot tables, or spoiler websites.  I play the games as HTL designed it to be played.

I've seen them.  I don't use them.  My statement was a merely a way of saying that they "randomize" things it seems by using only 4 possible combinations of locations for "essential" loot on Interloper.  I honestly don't know if they add more possible combinations as the Baseline Resources setting changes.  I would think it possible.  AFAIK, the 4 loot tables for Loper do also "work" on lower difficulties.  If there are more, then there should be times when they don't work, but I'm not about to test it out.  There will, however, always be people who would do something like that regardless of whatever "system" HTL used.  Total randomization, however, can't be cracked by anyone.  As I said, though, I believe a lot of people would dislike it.  I, however, would be perfectly game if they implemented it regardless of there being a non-zero chance of having a game spawn without one or more "essential" items.  The challenge would then be to see how long one could survive without access to those essentials, wouldn't it?  For example, how long I could survive on Loper without accessing the forge at all?... or without a match.  It might be as short as a day or a few days... but death is part of the aura of this game, isn't it?  As I said, for those that would find something like that too hard to accept, custom start options could be expanded and made more specific... select a start without just the bedroll or with just one match, etc.  There would be more ways to craft interesting and difficult starts apart from the current bolting to a spot with guaranteed matches and a 1/4-chance of a bedroll, etc.  People playing on lower difficulties would also have options to start without, say, a bedroll... as opposed to dropping it in the snow or harvesting it at the start to get rid of it.

Edited April 10, 2021 by UpUpAway95

[UpUpAway95]

45 minutes ago, The Orange Birb said:

This would be an amazing idea! It would help even more to make each run unique, as the randomness is increased. Also, it would help make the game a tiny bit more difficult (As spawns are not guaranteed on most things), which would be really nice.

+1

For your cave idea, if Hinterland could do that, that would make caves a LOT more interesting to explore, as it will be random for each run. Yes, it would make it more difficult (As map knowledge would not help if the caves were random each time) but that's the point of the game, to be a hard experience and the survivor (Will or Astrid) has little/no clue how to navigate around the region (As they crashlanded). I would really like that to be added as well.

  Reveal hidden contents

To add onto what I said about Will/Astrid having no clue how to navigate around the area, in Story Mode Grey Mother calls Will/Astrid "Outsiders," which shows that they have no clue how to navigate Great Bear (As they have never been to Great Bear, if I remember correctly). Will might have a tiny bit more knowledge about that area (As he flies planes) but for sure Astrid would have no clue how to navigate around there. @peteloud's idea about the randomized caves would REALLY reinforce that idea by making the cave system random, so each run is unique AND it would actually make you confused about how to navigate around for once. And plus, it would help make those online maps more useless!  

Will would have a quite a bit of ability to navigate Great Bear.  Aviation charts for VFR flight rules (which would apply to Will's plane) are quite detailed so that the pilot can navigate using landmarks visible from the air.  Structures like the dam and cannery, and towns like Milton, rivers, lakes and peaks would all definitely be on his charts and his charts would definitely be in the plane.  Astrid would also have access to those charts from the plane, although she might have a more limited ability to read them.  It is also evident from the story that Will at least spent some time vacationing on Great Bear with his father.  As a result, he could have a tremendous amount of knowledge about the island.  It also seems likely from the story that Astrid has spent some time on Great Bear given her knowledge of conditions there and her message that she was heading to Perseverence Mills.

[Syraith]

@UpUpAway95 I agree, I was just commenting on the fact that randomizing caves wouldn’t really effect much when so many other options are available. Maybe if more buildings had the chance to be burned out that would be better! I definitely get frustrated when I run towards a building for shelter to see it was a burnt shell on that run 😋

 

@peteloud @UpUpAway95 it would not be hard to effectively set up a “safe” spawn system. You already have a chance to not have something spawn you’d expect to see (like mother’s house being barren as a possibility). You’d just use two variables to effect the spawn. One a random number generator to spawn the item(s) and a second variable that would increase or decrease the range to spawn the item depending on if/how many times it’s spawned.
 

For example, say you spawn in Milton, go to mothers house, look under her bed, no revolver. Chance for revolver spawn would go up. You go to the crash site, still nothing. Chance goes up more. Go to the hydro plant, revolver spawns, chance goes down.

You could easily code items to have a higher or lower chance to spawn within the random chance based on how many times its spawned rather than 100% guaranteed locations. 

There are lots of fun ways to change spawn rates on objects 😁

[Old Hermit]

I suppose that the caves to be randomly blocked by shrubbery (great idea!) is meant to be the non-explorable, shelter caves, isn't?
Blocking the transitional caves and mines could leave to many disasters in game design, so i think @UpUpAway95 refers to the small ones, noh?

Anyways, i have no problem in having some of them blocked permanently by rocks (the island has too many earthquakes) or fallen trees, or whatever.

 

About the loot being more randomized, i'm all in favor of it. I never seen a loot table, and there is no reason to me look for any.
As someone said above, part of the essence of TLD survival mode is being crashed in an unfamiliar place. If the player is already familiarized to the terrain, it's just like to visit a place to where you traveled many times. So, there's no much "despair feeling" left, which is, for me, the soul of TLD.
Maybe some unpredictability on items spawn could bring that feeling, even if a little bit.

 

Let's keep in mind that these changes could be implemented as optional on custom, and not necessarily on standard modes.

(using google translator)

[UpUpAway95]

1 hour ago, Old Hermit said:

I suppose that the caves to be randomly blocked by shrubbery (great idea!) is meant to be the non-explorable, shelter caves, isn't?
Blocking the transitional caves and mines could leave to many disasters in game design, so i think @UpUpAway95 refers to the small ones, noh?

Anyways, i have no problem in having some of them blocked permanently by rocks (the island has too many earthquakes) or fallen trees, or whatever.

 

About the loot being more randomized, i'm all in favor of it. I never seen a loot table, and there is no reason to me look for any.
As someone said above, part of the essence of TLD survival mode is being crashed in an unfamiliar place. If the player is already familiarized to the terrain, it's just like to visit a place to where you traveled many times. So, there's no much "despair feeling" left, which is, for me, the soul of TLD.
Maybe some unpredictability on items spawn could bring that feeling, even if a little bit.

 

Let's keep in mind that these changes could be implemented as optional on custom, and not necessarily on standard modes.

(using google translator)

Yes, in general, I was referring to caves that don't transition from zone to zone... although I would not be adverse to transition caves being blocked by shrubbery since that can be cleared with a hatchet and hatchets do spawn on all difficulties except when Baseline Resources = Low (e.g. Interloper).  On those difficulties, there are generally enough of them that spawn to be very likely to find one in almost every zone even if loot were randomized totally.  For Loper-like runs where no hatchet spawns and they find the transition cave out of their spawn zone blocked... well, it's just going to likely be a short run.  If they survive for a long time all within their start zone, then they can pat themselves on the back for that achievement.  It would equate to a bad shuffle in solitaire that results in an hand that can't be won... which I've already said I'm not adverse to happening even in TLD.  Dying due to not being able to find an "essential" item is for me just part of the luck of the draw.  I don't need Hinterland to guarantee anything, really; but, as I also said, I suspect that there are many Lopers out there who would vehemently dislike total randomness affecting their games.

[Razum]

I got one point to add (nobody's gonna read it, because this thread is already so long, but anyways): You know, you can find ammunition laying on the ground as someone let fall a pack of it or something. Or you can find food distributed all over different shelves. This is pretty unrealistic, because nobody would scatter around their stuff around the house, like one tomato soup in one shelve, a cracker in one other. If you don't have so much, you would put it in one shelve so you have it in one place or something.

My point is, just by changing the random distribution of things appearing, it would feel much more realistic, without changing much balance wise. Like, you could find a bunch of single ammunition on the ground, because someone before let it fall down and didn't want to collect it again or about all of the food of a house in just one place.
One could think this further by making these distributions affect other houses. Like in one village could be empty very much without much to find, like if the old inhabitants would take it with them and in other villages they would just have died or ran away, so theres much to find.

Adding just some numbers to affect each other would tell stories, make it more realistic and less predictable.

[UpUpAway95]

9 hours ago, Razum said:

I got one point to add (nobody's gonna read it, because this thread is already so long, but anyways): You know, you can find ammunition laying on the ground as someone let fall a pack of it or something. Or you can find food distributed all over different shelves. This is pretty unrealistic, because nobody would scatter around their stuff around the house, like one tomato soup in one shelve, a cracker in one other. If you don't have so much, you would put it in one shelve so you have it in one place or something.

My point is, just by changing the random distribution of things appearing, it would feel much more realistic, without changing much balance wise. Like, you could find a bunch of single ammunition on the ground, because someone before let it fall down and didn't want to collect it again or about all of the food of a house in just one place.
One could think this further by making these distributions affect other houses. Like in one village could be empty very much without much to find, like if the old inhabitants would take it with them and in other villages they would just have died or ran away, so theres much to find.

Adding just some numbers to affect each other would tell stories, make it more realistic and less predictable.

Really?  Do you actually understand what randomness is?  Randomness would be telling the system to take the total loot and place it absolutely anywhere and in any number in the game world without telling the game what or how much to put where.  What you're describing is the opposite of randomness.  Total randomness might put ammo and a gun in a fridge or put socks there and you might find that raw salmon in the dresser instead.  It would not be more realistic since people do not store stuff randomly inside their homes.  They organize their stuff.  Randomness also would not affect the amount of loot in the world as a total, but you might get 6 bedrolls in one location and nothing in any of the other zones since there would be no formula telling the programs to spread things out over the entire world.  Total randomness would not even tell the program that it has to place a minimum number of any particular item in the world... so, you could get a map that, despite enabling guns, might have absolutely no guns in it.

Edited April 11, 2021 by UpUpAway95

[peteloud]

2 hours ago, UpUpAway95 said:

Really?  Do you actually understand what randomness is? . . . .

No one is writing about absolute randomness, except you.

I am sure that everyone else trusts HTL to use pseudo random distributions in a sensible way.

Edited April 11, 2021 by peteloud

[Razum]

4 hours ago, UpUpAway95 said:

Really?  Do you actually understand what randomness is?

Sry, I got to say this. I'm studying informatics which contains a big portion of math and also statistics. So, if you didn't were to study in a similar field, I'd say, I know more about randomness and distribution than you do.

And also I want to disprove you. Randomness depends on the point of view. If you were to not give restrictions to item spawns (like the revolver in the fridge) technically, the item spawns are more random. But also, the playthroughs would be less random, more predictable, because you would, no matter where you go, find everything on average you need. If you were to set fix item spawns, like the distress pistol always to spawn at certain locations would also make the gameplay less random, for obvious reasons.
By restricting item spawns in different ways (or coupling their likelihoods) you won't find all things for sure depending on your luck. So you got to search further and be intelligent about it (search for distress pistol at specific points but you're not sure to find it) and it's more of deciding to take a risk.
Such system would allow to place high rarity items in less extreme spots without unbalancing the game. If you would find a village and get like no loot out of one house, you could guess that you won't find much in the other houses (again risk estimate), so you won't find the rifle in one of the other houses. That means, that you won't find the rifle at the well known spots anymore so often and if you want to have it, you got to search houses, where you wouldn't find anything else. That would be a much more random gameplay feel, than any other item distribution (fixed spots or totally random).

[Syraith]

This is what I was pointing out. Setting up variables to effect how often you’d like an item to spawn in a specific spot isn’t hard coding. Take the distress pistol.

Say it has three spawn points. Lighthouse at DP, the office in Ml, and The summit wreck in TWM.

you go to lighthouse.

Roll a random number between 1-100 at spawn. Chance to spawn is 1. If number is 70+, pistol spawns. You roll a 50, nope. No spawn. But chance to spawn variable increases to 2.

Get to summit, roll another random number, let’s say 36 this time. Normally no spawn but since it missed last time, chance to spawn is 2 so we multiply the roll by 2, 72 now, so it spawns! Chance to spawn drops back to 1.

You get to the office in ML, roll again and this time you get a 59. No spawn since chance returned to 1.

Say it didn’t spawn at summit, chance went to 3 so the chance it would have spawned at the office would have gone up substantially.

Anyway, just pointing out that even with some simple coding it’s not hard to get a good system set up for objects in areas. 
 

Can even set it up like with food. If peanut butter spawns, chance for crackers goes down. Doesn’t make it impossible, but goes down. 
 

There are lots of ways to effect “randomness” in games. Like I said before, I love setting up spawns of objects. So many different and creative ways to control things like that 😁

 

[Sito]

Lots of good ideas in this discussion. I'm glad I started it
Raph as said in one of the Milton Mailbags that he likes the idea of adding more randomness. I am sure Hinterland would do it in a way that does not ruin the current mechanic and upset a lot of the core players who like to know where certain items can be found. Maybe just more locations for those items to found so that you have to search the whole map rather than run to the only 4 places where they ever spawn.

Anyway Hinterland does read these discussions and i am sure they take these ideas and everyone's input in to account if they decide to implement something.

[UpUpAway95]

On 4/11/2021 at 6:31 AM, Razum said:

Sry, I got to say this. I'm studying informatics which contains a big portion of math and also statistics. So, if you didn't were to study in a similar field, I'd say, I know more about randomness and distribution than you do.

And also I want to disprove you. Randomness depends on the point of view. If you were to not give restrictions to item spawns (like the revolver in the fridge) technically, the item spawns are more random. But also, the playthroughs would be less random, more predictable, because you would, no matter where you go, find everything on average you need. If you were to set fix item spawns, like the distress pistol always to spawn at certain locations would also make the gameplay less random, for obvious reasons.
By restricting item spawns in different ways (or coupling their likelihoods) you won't find all things for sure depending on your luck. So you got to search further and be intelligent about it (search for distress pistol at specific points but you're not sure to find it) and it's more of deciding to take a risk.
Such system would allow to place high rarity items in less extreme spots without unbalancing the game. If you would find a village and get like no loot out of one house, you could guess that you won't find much in the other houses (again risk estimate), so you won't find the rifle in one of the other houses. That means, that you won't find the rifle at the well known spots anymore so often and if you want to have it, you got to search houses, where you wouldn't find anything else. That would be a much more random gameplay feel, than any other item distribution (fixed spots or totally random).

That depends on how many repeat cards you have in the deck and how many total cards there are in the deck.  There are hundreds of loot sites in TLD and some items only spawn once (e.g. crampons) and others only spawn a few times on higher difficulties.  Currently, the singular items only spawn in a single location and the items that spawn only a few times spawn in a small number of set locations that are dependent on each other (i.e. the 4 loot tables commonly referenced in Interloper and the "source" of the complaints about how predictable those runs are).  Of course, contributing to that predictability is how the Interloper players tend to play... bee-lining towards those locations that are connected into those 4 loot tables repeatedly.  If the locations were made more truly random, they would not be "connected" to one another in such a predictable pattern.

The pattern is less evident to the players on the lower difficulties, but they are still there and they can eventually be memorized to some extent.  For example, by playing Broken Railroad only runs for some time, I have identified that there are only 3 possible locations in the entire zone where a certain corpse will spawn... and that corpse will always have a knife on it (voyageur difficulty).  Similarly, there are 3 possible locations where a campfire will spawn... and that's where you will find the hatchet.  The corpse with the bow lying next to a deer also has a set 3 locations where it can spawn.  The locations also have a relationship to each other such that if Corpse 1 is found in location 1, Corpse 2 will be found in it's location 1, etc.  There are additional instances of these tools that may spawn in other containers or they may absent entirely - possibly spawning in associated containers in other zones... but these corpses and their relationship to the zone and each other remains intact and guarantees one instance of each item spawning within the zone on the easy difficulty.

  If those locations were added together and those same 3 items were placed in the zone and if they could all be found on occasion lumped together on one corpse or not, even if the player knows all nine loot locations, they may have to search all nine spots before coming with the items rather than being able to predict that they will find each item in only  1 of 3 spots.  Taking away the restriction that 1 of each of these items has to spawn within BR zone, would mean that they could search all 9 locations in BR and come up with bupkis.

Now, tell me again... which system is "random" and which is not.

Definition of random, FYI = "made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision."  By definition, therefore, incompatible with the idea that more randomness would be more realistic.  IRL, people organize their stuff... making conscious decisions about where to put it.  Your scenario of dropped ammo means that the person made a conscious decision to not pick it up again'; therefore, it represents less randomness, not more.  It also involves a conscious decision of the dev to tell that little bit of story with the ammo as a prop.  Randomness, by definition, contradicts conscious story-telling in games.

Edited April 14, 2021 by UpUpAway95