1000 Days in the Dam: An exercise in inventory control

[Drifter Man]

7 hours ago, Ruruwawa said:

I don't rely on fishing much but this is the exact situation I save my tackle for.  It's a pretty reliable source of calories when weather is bad or game is MIA.  Not cost free (because a hook = 1/3 scrap metal) but I think it's a lot cheaper than shooting a rabbit (wear on the arrow shaft and knife/hacksaw).

I actually had the exact same thought. Cost doesn't matter much if you are hungry. But in the end, the snares were closer and more convenient than the lake.

[Drifter Man]

Day 644 (589th day in the Dam)

With nearly ten kilos of venison resting at my doorstep I'm no longer worried and I can get back to spreadsheets. I revised the decay rates of clothes and bedrolls and the ratio of outside to inside hours. For now I settled upon the following wardrobe maintenance schedule:

• repair deerskin boots at 95%
• repair deerskin pants* at 90%
• repair rabbitskin mitts* at 90%
• repair wolfskin coat at 70%
• repair heavy wool sweater at 85%
• repair wool longjohns at 95%

* Items marked with an asterisk will be worn round-the-clock; the rest will go to a locker while I'm home. Logic: 1) Pants degrade slowly and deer hides are more abundant than cloth (as long as you need cloth for bedroll repairs). 2) Rabbit pelts are essentially an infinite resource.

This will give me a relatively comfortable temperature bonus between 18 and 21°C at all times.

The expected cost of this schedule per 100 days:

• 3.6 deer hides
• 4.2 rabbit pelts
• 0.2 wolf pelts
• 8.0 guts
• 0.9 cloth
• 9.0 repairs

If I relied on sewing kits for repairs, they would run out on about Day 2500, but I can use fishing hooks instead. This will, in turn, eat into my reserves of scrap metal. Things are complicated.

I currently have over 400 pieces of cloth. If I follow the plan above, I will no longer be able to use my bedroll starting on Day 4467. The cloth harvested from the bedrolls will last until Day 5301 for repairs of clothes. The optimum strategy probably isn't staying in the Dam (and sleeping in bedroll) until cloth runs out completely, because I would then be unable to repair clothes afterwards when I move to some place with a bed. But for now this is not a concern.

[Drifter Man]

Day 696 (641st day in the Dam)

I've been running a test to determine once for all whether or not I can survive on rabbits alone. While I still have 10 days to go before I conclude it, the result is clearly positive. Especially after the v.338 update the daily caloric requirements have dropped considerably. With access to the three rabbit zones of the Ravine it is possible to gather enough calories, sticks and water to survive until cloth runs out.

Below are slightly more accurate decay rates of raw wolf and rabbit meat in an outdoor container. Note that there probably isn't any difference between meat lying in the open and in a container, and possibly between rabbit and wolf. If you divide 77% by 29 days, for example, you can't hope for much accuracy. I plan to update my food test locker results soon as well.

• Meat decay (%/day)   outdoor, open   outdoor, container
• -------------------------------------------------------
• venison, cooked      0.8             0.8
• rabbit, cooked       1.0             1.0
• wolf, cooked         0.8
• wolf, raw            2.4             2.8
• venison, raw         1.6
• rabbit, raw          2.6             2.7
• -------------------------------------------------------

The only disruption was a wolf struggle on Day 658: Although I initially retreated from the wolf to the Ravine, I returned too early and when I appeared in the Mystery Lake map, the wolf was right behind me. I lost this struggle (the first one in all 8 I've fought). The 40% condition loss was recovered in a single day, but all my crafted clothes received the same 40% damage and it took me two days and substantial resources to repair them. Deer hides and wolf pelts being of limited supply, each single wolf struggle can effectively cost me tens to hundreds of days of survival. Or thousands, if I am killed

Edit: the picture above (totally unrelated) has an interesting story. When the wolf at the bottom left approached the place below the ledge on which I stood above the Winding River, it reacted to me (ran away). It seems that animals have a reaction radius based on coordinates in the horizontal plane only; a wolf does not recognize that you are far above.

[Drifter Man]

Day 705 (650th day in the Dam)

I'm back with some decay test results based on longer test periods. There wasn't any substantial change in the decay rates in the v.338 update, which came on Day 672 in my case. The only exception is bedroll because I sleep more hours per day since v.338.

Numbers updated compared to the previous report are marked with red color. Degradable items are gradually becoming a rarity in my world. For example, when I took the energy bar out of the locker for outdoor testing, I had no other left to continue the indoor test. But I will continue recording these numbers until all that is left in the world is snow, wolves and Drifter Man

• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• Food decay           indoor    outdoor   backpack
• Duration: 118 days   container container
•                      %/day     %/day     %/day
• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• beef jerky           0.076    
• candy bar            0.178    
• cattail stalks       0.000    
• condensed milk       0.775     0.195
• energy bar           0.675     0.338
• granola bar          0.246    
• herbal tea           0.049    
• military-grade MRE   0.042    
• summit soda          0.119     0.675
• pinnacle peaches     0.246    
• pork & beans         0.093    
• salty crackers       0.000    
• tin of coffee        0.076               0.068
• tin of sardines      0.061    
• tomato soup          0.161    
• ---------------------------------------------------------------

 

• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• Decay of clothes     constant  indoor
• Duration: 69-84 days wearing   container
•                      %/day     %/day
• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• basic boots                    0.087
• wool scarf           0.467     0.072
• deerskin boots       0.310
• deerskin pants       0.107
• heavy wool sweater   0.131
• jeans                          0.029
• rabbitskin mitts     0.417     0.072
• toque                0.507     0.101
• wolfskin coat        0.155
• wool longjohns       0.071
• wool socks           0.440     0.087
• ---------------------------------------------------------------

 

• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• Other items          backpack  indoor
• Duration: 76-117 days          container
•                      %/day     %/day
• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• accelerant                     0.145
• distress pistol flare          0.053
• antibiotics          0.060     0.076
• painkillers          0.060     0.072
• water purif. tablets           0.136
• ---------------------------------------------------------------

 

• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• Bedroll decay        indoor    used
• Duration: 33-118 d   container +backpack
•                      %/day     %/day
• ---------------------------------------------------------------
• bedroll              0.153     1.424
• ---------------------------------------------------------------

[Drifter Man]

Day 705, second entry

Over the past 50 days I tried to survive exclusively on rabbits snared in the Ravine. I caught 346 rabbits, collected 1500 sticks (yes, exactly), burned 1314 sticks, cooked 346 kg of rabbit meat, boiled 106 liters of water and crafted 55 snares as replacements for the broken ones. Average daily calorie consumption dropped from 3139 Cal per day before v.338 to 2749 Cal per day after v.338, mainly as a result of the flat 10% decrease in calorie requirements for all activities in Voyageur mode. Average water consumption has decreased from 1.99 l per day to 1.94 l per day (more sleep, probably). Bottom line: It is entirely possible and comfortable to live off three rabbit zones. In v.338, even two rabbit zones are enough as long as you harvest all meat (not just 1kg per rabbit) and accept the resulting increase in demand for wood and cooking time.

This means that my stay in the Dam is not limited by the number of birch saplings/arrows I can find. Snare breakage rate is a concern - I take replacement guts with my hunting knife, one of my most limited resources. I'm already feeding the data into my brand new "TLD survival simulator" - a simulator of a simulator that goes beyond spreadsheets  Let's see how far I can get with all this.

Since Day 682 I've been taking notes of wolf presence at the Dam. It may be just a coincidence but wolf activity at the Dam has increased and now there is a wolf about 50-60% of the time. On Day 704 there were two wolves, for the first time I've ever seen this happen at the Dam. I managed to dodge wolves after the fight on Day 658 but given the profile of the terrain and the paths wolves take - often concealed - I know I can't avoid more encounters. This is what bad news in the morning look like:

[Drifter Man]

Day 705, third entry

So, I set up simulation to see what will happen if I play this game until (and into) retirement:

• Raw materials ------------------------------
• cloth              402 pcs     Day  4063
• deer hides         152 pcs     Day  8574
• wolf pelts           8 pcs     Day 11623
• scrap metal        318 pcs     Day  8744
•  
• Bedroll ------------------------------------
• bedroll           1.32 pcs     Day  4264
•  
• Sewing equipment ---------------------------
• sewing kits      11.20 pcs     Day  3116
• fishing tackle   50.30 pcs     Day 11218
•  
• Hunting weapons and ammunition -------------
• arrow shafts     35.00 pcs     Day  4206
• rifle ammo          17 pcs     Day  7994
•  
• Meat harvesting tools (by order of use) ----
• hacksaw           0.92 pcs     Day  8843
• hatchet           4.61 pcs     Day  9304
• knife            10.49 pcs     Day 10485

 

1. On Day 4063 I will run out of cloth. I can maintain one bedroll until Day 4264 by cannibalizing the other but unless I switch to bear bedrolls, I will eventually have to leave the Dam. Whether it is wise to allow myself run out of cloth totally is another matter. Mind you, this is just a simulation (of a simulation).
2. I can limit the number of deer I'll be hunting to run out of arrows at about the same time as cloth (Day 4206). At that point I will be left with ca 160 deer hides that will last me until Day 8574.
3. Using the rifle to hunt wolves (safe option, but not necessarily the only one available), I will run out of rifle ammo on Day 7994 and then out of wolf pelts on Day 11623.
4. There is enough scrap metal in the Dam to maintain my hacksaw until Day 8843. If I switch to hatchets and knives afterwards, I will be left with bare hands only to harvest meat on Day 10485.

In general, I think that things would start getting out of hand around Day 8000-9000 when those deer hides run out, but who knows what I will find in the maps that I haven't searched yet, and what changes will be introduced into the game in the meantime. Also, fishing is not in the picture yet.

[Jolan]

still 21-24 years is a good run

 

[hauteecolerider]

21 - 24 years will get me to retirement!

[Salty Crackers]

Flare gun shells decay?

[Drifter Man]

On 6/5/2016 at 3:47 PM, Jolan said:

still 21-24 years is a good run

 

Provided I keep my fairly fast average rate of progress (4.5 days per 1 RL day!) I should be there in just ... 5 years

[Drifter Man]

20 hours ago, Salty Crackers said:

Flare gun shells decay?

The one I found in CH does. I keep it in a locker and it looks it will hold for at least 1500 days. It is possible that those waiting on the TWM summit decay at a different rate, but in any case, it is probably slow.

[Drifter Man]

Day 716

In case you wonder what is in the picture, it's the arse of a bear standing on its hind legs inside a fishing hut. In my next post I will explain how it got there.

[Drifter Man]

Day 716, second entry

After necessary preparations, which included killing two deer and cooking 18 kilograms of venison, I set out towards the Coastal Highway once again on Day 714. My destination is Desolation Point this time, and the goal to assess the amount of resources I can draw from this map. Also, I am hoping to find some decent basic clothes while they still last.

My usual method of bringing a lot of venison along and combining it with food found locally in houses wouldn’t work this time. The distance to Desolation Point is so great that the venison would barely suffice to cover the journey there and back. Also, with much of the food spoiled by now, I cannot assume that I can find enough calories in those yet undiscovered locations to support me.

How do you get a lot of calories close to Desolation Point? Now that parasites are not a concern? You kill the bear at Misanthrope’s. Right.

So, the plan was to get the bear, cook it at Misanthrope’s and use it as a calorie reserve for the exploration of Desolation Point.

I set out before dawn with 11 kilograms of venison, a fully loaded rifle and newly repaired clothes. I slept for an hour in a cave in the Ravine and reached the cabin above the Fishing Camp still in the morning, in heavy fog. I slept again until the fog had dissipated and then I continued across the ice to Misanthrope’s homestead. Strong winds with heavy snow hit me as I approached the island, so I hurried to the cabin to avoid getting caught in a blizzard, which never came.

Eventually, I used the remaining 4 hours of daylight to check the surroundings of the island. The bear was nowhere to be seen, but there were bones at the cave entrance. I hauled some firewood to the fishing cabin opposite to the cave and paid a visit to the Waterfront cottages. Much of the food I left there was in bad condition – I haven’t been to my farthermost supply point for over 250 days. I took a prybar, bandages, a hatchet and some water.

On my way out I noticed a rosehip bush on the shore. As I came closer to harvest it I spotted an approaching wolf, so I changed my mind and sneaked out. A few rosehips aren’t worth a wolf fight.

Day 715 started with bad weather and I was soon forced back to shelter when a blizzard broke out, lasting until dusk – blizzards last longer in Coastal Highway than I’m used to, maybe about 7-8 hours. If there is no bear on Day 716, I’ll spend the day fishing.

Well, on Day 716 there was a bear. But nothing can go smoothly when Drifter Man goes bear hunting. The bear was stuck walking in place at the cave and I had to approach it – when it noticed me, it finally got unstuck and followed. At the third attempt I finally managed to lure it towards the fishing hut. I went inside, carefully aimed for the head of the approaching beast, and pulled the trigger.

The bear charged, went past the hut and I could hear it moving around. Eventually it appeared at the entrance, walking past quite close, and I saw no blood. I was sure I had hit, but did the shot have any effect? I fired a second round and next moment there was the bear, inside the hut with me.

I was mentally prepared for the inevitable mauling when the bear turned around, stood up on its hind legs and sniffed around. I had the presence of mind to record this moment for posterity. Then the bear walked out and away.

To calm down, I dug a hole in the ice and caught a 2.25-kg trout, my first fish in 716 days (not counting the canned ones). In the meantime, the bear died, probably as a result of the first shot, and lay on the ice. I took its hide and started working on the meat.

[Drifter Man]

Day 720

It took me two days to cook the meat and prepare several liters of water. I used the remainder of Day 718 to visit Coastal Wolfsite, but my initial reconnaissance revealed wolves swarming the place as usual, so I gave up the idea. On Day 719 I set out of Misanthrope's in the direction of Desolation Point, carrying 10 kg of bear meat and leaving 15 more in the fishing hut. All was well until Crumbling Highway, which was patrolled by two wolves. One approached me and I tried to run away, only to meet another wolf. Eventually I managed to slip in between them and ended up at Harris's in the basement. I looted it (a flare, some food and clothes) and because I was tired from running, I slept for 3 hours in my bedroll.

With six hours left until nightfall I went on. I avoided the wolves still prowling around but a blizzard started. In dashed to the mine connector and remained there until dawn.

On Day 720 I proceeded to the Stone Church, collecting some medicinal plants and mushrooms on the way. There was a sapling at the church - green maple. I let it grow... do the devs realize that you need ammunition for the bow as well? I could build a house out of maple saplings already... As I turned my attention to the church, a wolf appeared and started massacring some rabbits, so I slipped around into the building. Happy to find a box of ammunition and some food (an edible candy bar lying on the ground!), I retraced my steps and took a break at the No.5 mine in order to leave some of my new loot there for later pickup. As soon as I closed the door, another blizzard broke out, so I used the time and searched the mine thoroughly. A surprising and valuable find: a bedroll at 40% lying on the ground. Now I'm totally confused about the degradation mechanic.

There were 5 hours left of daylight when the blizzard ended, so I set out for the lighthouse. Again, I had to pass through wolf patrols to get there... those beasts are everywhere...

Two days have passed and I can't say I've done much exploration. Just dodging wolves and blizzards. I have one or two more days before I head back for supplies.

[Jolan]

Coastal Wolfsite  I've just been calling it Coastal Coat Factory

 

 

[Drifter Man]

8 hours ago, Jolan said:

Coastal Wolfsite  I've just been calling it Coastal Coat Factory

Actually, I've been thinking I could use it exactly this way. Clear the wolves out of my way, get meat to fuel my expedition, and earn some wolf pelts as byproduct.

[Ruruwawa]

@Drifter Man I just caught up on your travels since day 696 -- loads of great info!  In the decay data the thing that leaped out at me was the decay rate of medicines: faster in storage than in your pack.  That seems odd.

Subsistence solely on rabbits is very interesting!  Do you ever harvest them with your bare hands, or is that too time consuming to keep ahead of your calorie needs?

Have you looted DP before?  I usually get some good stuff there.  Rifles and bullets always, but quite a nice selection of other goodies including reishi shrooms.

[Drifter Man]

Thanks @Ruruwawa, it's good to have you back  I'm glad you find the info useful. As always, I'm trying to make the most of the living in TLD.

I generally don't harvest rabbits with bare hands. I use hacksaw on the frozen ones and (rarely) knife on the fresh ones. If I need guts, it's the knife (the impact on knife life is not so great for it to be a problem). Only pelts (once in ca 25 days) are harvested with bare hands - 40 vs 30 minutes are a small difference.

What I didn't mention in my post is that I now only check snares once in two days (= less walking, more time available). I start with the frozen ones from the past day and when I'm done with all three rabbit zones, I work my way backwards and harvest the fresh ones, which have frozen in the meantime. Only if a very fresh rabbit gets caught later in the day, I harvest it with the knife. I usually get 15-18 rabbits this way, while 12-14 would be enough. Consequently, I have a few free days every now and then that I can use for whatever I need or like to do.

If I checked snares each day like before, I could use bare hands in theory, but it would mean spending half of the day just harvesting rabbits - every day. Little time left to cook, collect sticks or to do anything else. I didn't try it, but I believe that survival without a tool for harvesting meat is not practicable (without starvation/caloric restriction, of course).

I had only visited DP briefly once before, so this is effectively my first trip. Unfortunately, I've been keeping my eyes on wolves and weather rather than on loot. But I already have a plan

[Drifter Man]

2 hours ago, Ruruwawa said:

In the decay data the thing that leaped out at me was the decay rate of medicines: faster in storage than in your pack.  That seems odd

Yes, this leaped on me from my backpack. It is definitely true. I had one batch of pills at one condition, left some in a medical cabinet indoors and kept some in the backpack. The ones I left in the cabinet lost 9% over 118 days compared to 7% for the ones in the backpack.

[hauteecolerider]

1 hour ago, Drifter Man said:

The ones I left in the cabinet lost 9% over 118 days compared to 7% for the ones in the backpack.

Is this the number of days you've played on one update? I'm wondering if the decay rates you are reporting is the average over multiple updates/hotfixes, or limited to a single update. It influences how I interpret the data.

As always, I'm finding your reports interesting and invaluable as I work my way through Coastal Highway. Still playing on Pilgrim, as I really enjoy being able to explore without worrying about wolves and bears and tigers oh, my. And you are already 2/3 of the way to your goal of 1000 days in the Dam! Well, technically, not in the Dam, but we all know that you need to get out and work to survive . . .

[Drifter Man]

4 hours ago, hauteecolerider said:

Is this the number of days you've played on one update? I'm wondering if the decay rates you are reporting is the average over multiple updates/hotfixes, or limited to a single update. It influences how I interpret the data.

It is over multiple hotfixes and one major update (v.338). When v.338 came out, I recorded the status of all tested items to be able to check later whether the update brought about any changes. And the answer is no, there were no drastic changes in this respect in v.338. Still, for slowly degrading items like those pills the accuracy is low since I only get condition rounded up to the nearest %, and I only track days (not hours) of test duration. So there may have been a small or moderate change in decay rates that could escape my scrutiny.

Good luck in CH! I miss the peaceful days of Pilgrim exploration. Maybe I failed to mention it, but I hate wolves, too  Right now they are messing with my plans.

[Ruruwawa]

5 hours ago, Drifter Man said:

I now only check snares once in two days (= less walking, more time available).

This is REALLY interesting.  I've been thinking about trying the rabbit lifestyle but the daily commitment seemed a bit restrictive.  If the meat isn't too spoiled on the second day then this seems like a good way to go.  Are you still using 15 traps?  

[Drifter Man]

Day 723

I spent one more day exploring Desolation Point. I visited the Riken and found my first decent piece of basic clothing - basic winter coat at 90%. Also, some ammunition plus lot of kerosene that I left in the ship for it was too heavy to carry. I took a hide from a ravaged carcass near Matt's truck (deer hides are important: 8000 days, remember?). From the Riken I caught a glimpse of the Hibernia plant, guarded by two wolves and a bear that I could see.

The weather took a turn for the worse again and I returned to my temporary base at the Lighthouse. I boiled some water, got ready to leave on the next morning, and went to bed.

On Day 722 my luck ran out: on the second bridge, after leaving the Lighthouse, I ran headlong into a wolf. The fight was quick - I suffered no bleeding or condition loss but my clothes were torn and temperature bonus reduced from 20 to 16°C. I decided to stay until the wolf died, then I harvested it completely, cooked the meat and left the pelt and guts at the Lighthouse to cure, along with the deer hide. I will repair my clothes when I return.

I set out again in the afternoon, encountered and escaped a wolf in Crumbling Highway and returned to Misanthrope's Island. Day 723 was devoted to making some water and getting another deer hide and guts from a ravaged carcass for repairs. I will soon be ready to return to Desolation Point and finish the job. This time in the company of my .303 rifle 

[Drifter Man]

9 minutes ago, Ruruwawa said:

This is REALLY interesting.  I've been thinking about trying the rabbit lifestyle but the daily commitment seemed a bit restrictive.  If the meat isn't too spoiled on the second day then this seems like a good way to go.  Are you still using 15 traps?  

The meat is usually in the 60-70% range although I sometimes get a less than 50% piece. I place 8 traps in each rabbit zone - usually I don't get more than 6 rabbits from one zone in two days but 1-2 snares can be broken. 24 snares are placed altogether.

[Patrick Carlson]

2 minutes ago, Drifter Man said:

The meat is usually in the 60-70% range although I sometimes get a less than 50% piece. I place 8 traps in each rabbit zone - usually I don't get more than 6 rabbits from one zone in two days but 1-2 snares can be broken. 24 snares are placed altogether.

Just wanted to stop by and say thanks for the always-engaging updates on your progress. It's really turning into quite the artifact. Thanks for sharing your journey with us.