Whoa how did I miss this detail?! (Spoilers beware)

[ThePancakeLady]

1 hour ago, jeffpeng said:

I can assure you that they would most certainly not, because that's one of the few thing I actually did study. I think we can so far rule out an EMP event.

It is still controversial, since we have never experienced an actual Nuclear Winter. But there are many scientists who have studied the possible effects and theorized that a Nuclear Winter is a possibility. https://www.britannica.com/science/nuclear-winter

But I do agree, that this being a Nuclear Winter, with the lack of smoke and debris blocking out the sun is not terribly likely. Plausible, but not 100% realistic, even for a work of science fiction. Though, I do always wonder what is causing the large flares, sometimes seen during an Aurora, that seem to emanate from the ground. A more localized Nuclear Winter? The effects of which are spreading slowly out from the Island, where the detonations are taking place, to Mainland Canada, and elsewhere? 

[ManicManiac]

Reading over this made me realize.  I love that they've kept the "truth" of the phenomenon nebulous, and that there are so many seemingly disparate little story threads scattered all around the game world that can be woven together by the player in so many ways...  It's really satisfying.

While I think it would be interesting to know for certain "what's going on,"  ...I almost think it's better not knowing.   

"The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you."
     - Neil deGrasse Tyson
 

I kind of hope they keep the mystery, after all there are many strange phenomenon in our world we can't really explain.
Besides, it leaves room for all this fun theorizing  

Edited November 14, 2019 by ManicManiac

[Guest jeffpeng]

5 hours ago, ThePancakeLady said:

It is still controversial, since we have never experienced an actual Nuclear Winter. But there are many scientists who have studied the possible effects and theorized that a Nuclear Winter is a possibility.

That's something entirely different as you already point out. For a nuclear winter to emerge there would need to be a substantial amount of dust and other ejecta in the atmosphere. We have no hint whatsoever that there actually was (and is ongoing) a mass firing of such weapons - at which point I believe civil air travel would be suspended.

To achieve an EMP with a nuclear explosion device you'd have to detonate it in the upper atmosphere. This is not to be mistaken with what one would call an "air burst" detonation of a strategic nuclear weapon. Such an air burst would occur at between 100 and 2500 meters above ground, depending on expected blast yield. An atmospheric burst would occur a few hundred kilometers above ground and would not yield any measurable kinetic effect to ground targets.

As to the nuclear winter theorem in general: if thousands of nuclear weapons would ground burst this would be a likely scenario. However you would only ground burst a modern thermonuclear warhead if your actual goal was to make the area uninhabitable for a prolonged period of time (mostly tied to St90 and Cs137 decay), and you would probably use either a large convential fission device or a thermonuclear device with a large Uranium tamper.

However most modern warheads are actually relatively "clean" when it comes to nuclear fallout relative to their detonation yield as heavy U238 tampers are rather inefficient mass to carry for an ICBM in terms of payload-to-blast-yield ratio. In a doomsday scenario where nuclear powers would fire their arsenal against each other such ICBM would be what would be fired for the most part. The amount of constantly airborne nuclear arsenal is suprisingly low. Also if your actual goal was to destroy as much of the target as possible, which is is most likely what you would want in a nuclear shootout, you would air burst your warheads, not ground burst them. So ... while a nuclear winter is possible, it's probably rather unlikely given modern nuclear weapons technology and tactics. Not that that would make WW3 any more appealing .... 

5 hours ago, ThePancakeLady said:

Though, I do always wonder what is causing the large flares, sometimes seen during an Aurora, that seem to emanate from the ground.

That indeed is a good question. No idea, really. As we haven't yet seen our planets magnetic field messed up like this there really is no way to tell if that was anywhere plausible. Maybe it would be feasible to see such an effect when the magnetic field were like locally inverted? No idea. I would say no, but then again science cannot really explain ball lighting sufficiently. So .... who knows. But I've noticed that as well.

Another theory regarding the aurora and all that is happening I've read is that a swarm of dark matter is passing "through" Earth displacing electrons. That is as far fetched as it gets as dark matter is something we cannot even detect or prove, and which by itself it completely theoretical and its very existence as a theory might boil down to our lack of understanding of the nature of gravity, which despite all our efforts is sketchy at best. So .... yeah, the universe still holds yet enough uncertainties to make most of the stuff happening on Great Bear "possible".

2 hours ago, ManicManiac said:

"The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you."
     - Neil deGrasse Tyson

Love that quote. Love Neil in general. Also love this one:

I think we should name that pendulum "Murphy".

Edited November 14, 2019 by jeffpeng

[MarrowStone]

10 hours ago, jeffpeng said:

Mysticism is something we sorta deprived ourselves of in our age and time.

I wrote something about this in the forums somewhere too! And while our current scientific understanding of the world isn't bad, we are a species of storytellers, it's in our blood to explore the unknown with our imaginations. 

Similarly, music is just as integral to us as storytelling, it may have even helped us develop our speech! A good song is just as enthralling to our imagination as a good story. 

10 hours ago, BESt said:

I don't think that the event has anything to do with the weather. I don't recall story saying anything about the weather getting colder, but I might be wrong. And Raphael van Lierop suggested that they might in the future make a TLD 2, with changing seasons. This implies that the disaster isn't causing a permanent winter.

In the hanger in Episode 1 Will says something about not remembering needing his parka so early in the year. I don't think it means a permanent winter, but more severe weather in general, like what we see with climate change causing more storms and colder winters due higher pressures in the North and more evaporation in the atmosphere. It could be a freak October storm from mother nature unraveling. 

[ajb1978]

25 minutes ago, MarrowStone said:

In the hanger in Episode 1 Will says something about not remembering needing his parka so early in the year. I don't think it means a permanent winter, but more severe weather in general, like what we see with climate change causing more storms and colder winters due higher pressures in the North and more evaporation in the atmosphere. It could be a freak October storm from mother nature unraveling. 

If the Climber's Journal in the TWM hut is any indication, the game takes place early September.  The journal entry describes the crash of the cargo plane at the summit, and is dated September 5.  And I mean yeah, if I needed to bust out my parka on September 5, I'd find that unusually early too!

[ajb1978]

3 hours ago, jeffpeng said:

Love that quote. Love Neil in general. Also love this one:

I think we should name that pendulum "Murphy".

 

[MarrowStone]

21 minutes ago, ajb1978 said:

If the Climber's Journal in the TWM hut is any indication, the game takes place early September.  The journal entry describes the crash of the cargo plane at the summit, and is dated September 5.  And I mean yeah, if I needed to bust out my parka on September 5, I'd find that unusually early too!

Oh crud! I forgot about that! Explains why cattails have their fluff and the moose are temperamental.

[GothSkunk]

On 11/11/2019 at 9:02 PM, ajb1978 said:

Something just occurred to me on my third play-through of Episode 3.  So when you first encounter Fr. Thomas, he asks if you came from the crash site. Astrid says she crashed several days ago, but Fr. Thomas says something like "No, you just crashed yesterday" as he mistakenly believes she was on the airliner.

That's a gap of several days.  Mackenzie's plane was hit by the aurora and went down several days BEFORE the airliner did.  The event that brought down Mackenzie's plane apparently didn't affect everything, and a second hit took down the airliner several days after Will and Astrid crash-landed.  Did anyone else notice that discrepancy?  What do you think it means?  It appears that the first aurora did not in fact cripple the world, and that several repeated hits have been happening that each systematically cripple more and more of the infrastructure.

Edit: Fr. Thomas later states that the diabetic came in from the plane crash a day or "maybe two days ago" so I suppose it's possible he's simply confused....

I see where you're going with this, and I think you would have been on to something, were it not for the redux's of Episodes 1 and 2.

Before Ep1&2 Redux, Mackenzie spent a lot more time down in that valley after the crash. It served as the game's tutorial. But after the Redux, you climb out of that valley after just a day or two, I think. You don't even have to harvest the free deer carcass for food.

 

In either case, by the time Mackenzie gets out of the valley, Astrid is already out of Milton. I think that it stands to reason to assume that while Mackenzie is in Milton running favours for Grey Mother, Astrid is comatose in Molly's care.

 

Based on the narrative elements of Chapters 1 and 2, I'm hesitant to entertain the idea that there are multiple auroras resulting in multiple disasters over the course of a few days. I want to believe that The Big One -- the one that brought down Mackenzie's plane and kicks off Chapter 1 -- destroyed everything worldwide and would have also resulted in the airliner crashing in Pleasant Valley. If the airliner and Mackenzie's plane crashes did not occur on the same night, that's a pretty glaring narrative inconsistency.

 

That being said, Mackenzie's interactions with Methuselah have also been inconsistent, but only if we act on an assumption that Methuselah is flesh, blood, and mortal. I think Methuselah is supernatural, especially with his name being a reference to Noah's father. Maybe he even is THE Methuselah. And if that's the case, maybe Father Thomas is too. After all, Milton's priest left their church behind and does his sermons over Skype, according to the note left behind in that church. Why would HE have left, and not Father Thomas?

Come to think of it, where the hell is everyone else in Thomson's Crossing? The houses are abandoned. Is Father Thomas the only resident there? And if so, why? What good is a priest without a congregation?

 

As for how such a detail could be missed, I think many -- if not all -- of us were just so excited to play Episode 3 that we weren't examining the story with a fine-toothed comb.

Edited December 15, 2019 by GothSkunk

[MarrowStone]

@GothSkunk, the inconsistency of the crash is based off of Molly telling you you were out for a few days (on top of your character at spending at least half a day in Milton.) and Father Tom saying the plane crash in Pleasant Valley was yesterday. 

I'd like to believe in the First flare being worldwide too but if that were the case, either Molly or Father Tom aren't telling the truth. 

This inconsistency doesn't have anything to do with the player not following the story right away either bacause its still off even if you go straight for Father Tom. 

 

Methuselah most definitely is a figmant of imagination but him being In the gas station before you climb down was a bug. Either way, he still beat you down there without a rope. 

[GothSkunk]

Climb down? What, down into the Milton Basin? That can't be a bug. Once you climb down into the Milton Basin, the rope snaps and you can't get back up. What better time for Methuselah to BE in the gas station?

[ThePancakeLady]

6 hours ago, MarrowStone said:

Methuselah most definitely is a figmant of imagination but him being In the gas station before you climb down was a bug. Either way, he still beat you down there without a rope. 

Methuselah being in the Orca station isn't a bug. It's where you first meet him in Ep 1. He's supposed to be there, to give some of the narrative/back-story for Story Mode. You then meet him again after the climb down to leave Milton (when the rope breaks on you). He shows back up again in Episode 2. I see him as some sort of cryptic messenger, or "guardian angel" or a guide. He gives clues about what is happening, but is intentionally vague, so the player has to decide how they are going to act/react, and determine their own moral or immoral character (personality). Will's attitude and comments about and to Methuselah show a loss of spirituality, or change in it, in modern society. 

That's my take on it. YMMV.

[Guest jeffpeng]

2 hours ago, ThePancakeLady said:

Will's attitude and comments about and to Methuselah show a loss of spirituality, or change in it, in modern society. 

That's actually a fairly interesting interpretation of it, and I think not even far fetched. 👍

[MarrowStone]

@GothSkunk, @ThePancakeLady,

I know hes supposed to be in the gas station.

But in earlier versions you were able to meet him at the gas station just before climbing down the rope and see him already down there before you. 

They patched it in a hotfix and now he disappears from the gas station as soon as you are awarded the rope to keep him more vague and less like he teleported in mere seconds. 

I totally agree with both of Methuselah's role in the story. I was just pointing out that an early bug made him seem even less vague and mysterious because he was quite literally in two places at once.