Firestarting failures

[thepandoraeffect]

Short and sweet, I think that failing to start a fire for whatever reason should give some progress towards the firestarting survivor skill. While logical in a realistic approach, it also will prevent people (like me) from being stuck in a near perpetual loop while starting out and having (I counted) 18+ failed fires in a row even with a 60% chance of success.

[Vinceofpyrenees]

Agree, when you have 2 or 3 tries, the wood isn't more and more dry as the tries come one after the other ?

[MarrowStone]

I dislike the fact that now after x amount of skill progress you automatically get a buff in firestarting chance, i liked the original where it slowly went up for every fire you light.

[elloco999]

slowly increasing skills does seem more 'natural' to me. It's not that you're bad at starting fires for the first 19 and then after number 20 you're suddenly a whole lot better at it.

[TWM]

Quote

...having (I counted) 18+ failed fires in a row even with a 60% chance of success.

I'm sure there's someone adept at math on the forums who's able to calcutate the chance of that happening. It's like tossing a coin (which is also slightly weighted in your favour) 18+ times in a row and still getting 'tails' every single time.

Furthermore, you might try starting a fire with books, or cedar wood/sticks + lighter fluid for a better chance.

Also, there are plenty of manuals out there, some of which accelerates the progress of your fire lighting skill quite a bit.

That said, I do agree the fire starting skill should progress regardless whether an attempt at starting a fire was succesful or not. Especially since this particular skill progresses ever so slowly.

[cekivi]

Welcome to the forums @thepandoraeffect!

And if you did fail 18 times in a row (ouch! Also, you had that much tinder?) the odds would basically round to zero (0.00007 %).

[MarrowStone]

3 hours ago, cekivi said:

Welcome to the forums @thepandoraeffect!

And if you did fail 18 times in a row (ouch! Also, you had that much tinder?) the odds would basically round to zero (0.00007 %).

Ive gotten to 11 before. I find that if you back away and do another task like breaking down a newspaper it somehow seems to break the loop.

[elloco999]

On 9-9-2016 at 11:57 PM, cekivi said:

Welcome to the forums @thepandoraeffect!

And if you did fail 18 times in a row (ouch! Also, you had that much tinder?) the odds would basically round to zero (0.00007 %).

As anyone who has had statistical math can tell you, it is very unlikely but not impossible.

I've never bothered to count the number of fails in a row but 3-5 @ 60% is certainly not uncommon and can even happen @ 80% (what are the chances of that?). Statistically possible, but it just feels wrong to me.

Sure, I could use stuff that will increase my chances to start a fire, but I tend to save those for when I really do need a fire right now.

[Whisper]

(1-0.6)^18 = 0.0000007 

I guess it's impossible at all  

[Killik]

And there I was thinking failing 3 out of 4 80% chances are impossible

[akodo1]

I had 3 failures in a row at 85% chance. 4th worked.  Later on had 2 failures in a row at 85% chance 3rd lit.

 

I was really expecting to see this topic be about maybe since the update fire-starting-calculations are off.  But the truth of it is, sometimes bad luck runs in streaks.  I am sure I've lit 15 fires in a row with no failure at 85% and thought nothing of it, even though that's somewhat unlikely statistically speaking, but you don't notice it when it goes in your favor.

On the subject of starting fires....i used to horde accelerant and books for when I 'really needed them'  Now I do the opposite.  I use books and accelerant a lot early on (although I do keep 1 accelerant for 'emergencies'...as soon as I find a 2nd I use it.  This gives me those easy early fires and helps me more rapidly move to the point where with just wood matches and sticks I am almost always successful.

 

That being said, I do like the natural point-by-point progression of the old fire building system.  I am also mixed on the 'no tinder' thing.  It's nice to not have to bother with them, but also somewhat unrealistic.  The only thing I can figure is you are making a tinder plug while also prepping and starting your fire.  I wish though that still using tinder would have SOME in game effect, such as boosting the chance to make the fire, or, like when you use accelerant, if you use tinder your fire starts quicker so you don't have just a minute left on that single-stick fire, instead you have like 3-5 minutes.  (IIRC with accelerant you have 6 minutes of burn time left on your first stick)

[cekivi]

On 2016-09-25 at 11:43 PM, akodo1 said:

That being said, I do like the natural point-by-point progression of the old fire building system.  I am also mixed on the 'no tinder' thing.  It's nice to not have to bother with them, but also somewhat unrealistic.  The only thing I can figure is you are making a tinder plug while also prepping and starting your fire.  I wish though that still using tinder would have SOME in game effect, such a

Yep. That seems to be people's general consensus of the new system

[Muk_Pile]

When I'm still my Fire Starting Skill is still only at level 1, I tend to try and save my books and accelerant for when I am have to trek somewhere that doesn't have a building I can enter and save my game (e.g. fishing huts, deer and rabbit carcasses), so that I don't have to worry about wasting a bunch of matches and then rage quit to reload my game from my last save point (which could be a very long walk from my destination).

When I have just entered a building or woken from my slumber and I need to light a fire, I can try my luck with poor fire starting materials (e.g. sticks, logs, brands) since I can just quit and reload my game if I fail too many times.  I know some people might consider that to be cheating, but when you try to play on Interloper, every match counts.

Also, although I do feel that the bonus received at level 3 fire starting is a good idea, it needs some tweaking to really feel balanced and sound:

1. Tinder increases your chances of starting a fire by up to 5%
   • Birch Bark, Cat Tail Heads, and Tinder Plugs provide a 5% bonus
   • News Prints and News Print Rolls provides only 3% bonus
   • This is to encourage players to craft Tinder Plugs out of News Prints so they can utilize them to their full potential, though in an emergency News Prints can still used to start a fire
2. Using more tinder increases your chances of starting a fire
   • However, to keep this feature from becoming a exploit, each additional tinder increases your odds by 1% less than the previous tinder
   • This caps the amount of tinder you can effectively use up to 5 Tinder Plugs or 3 News Prints
   • 0 Tinder Plugs = 0%, 1 Tinder = 5%, 2 Tinder = 9%, 3 Tinder = 12%, 4 Tinder = 14%, 5 Tinder = 15%, >6 Tinder = 15%
   • 0 News Prints = 0%, 1 Print = 3%, 2 Prints = 5%, 3 Prints = 6%, >4 Prints = 6%

[MarrowStone]

How much of a firestarting chance bonus would the CatTails at my work give me?

They have like 3-5 "heads" on one stalk for some reason