School

[Pyroxene]

Spoiler

What was the purpose of burning the school in episode 1? During a blizzard?

 

[ThePancakeLady]

2 hours ago, BugReportEnthusiast said:

A bus with like 20 prisoners in Tshirts with zero equipment or weapons crashes into a town of people and the prisoners just win and burn it all down?

Who says there was a town full of people?

Spoiler

The prison may have been one of the few places on the island still actively occupied by people, and only the worst of the worst still being held there, as earthquakes devastate the island and anyone who can get off the island (who isn't  a hold-out refusing to leave) does so. The earthquake damage, not really explained in depth in Survival Mode, is covered in Wintermute, especially Episode 3 *and* at the very beginning of Episode 1, where Will mentions it directly when looking at a brochure for the tourist industry there. The island does not appear to have been deserted the day before the First Flare, and there are far too few dead bodies to be found on the island in either Wintermute or Survival Mode to suggest every house or cabin was fully occupied, and every business was fully staffed and operational. The fictional economic collapse would have driven many people off of the island and shut down the tourist trade without earthquakes happening on a regular basis. ATMs with signs-- "No More Cash!", Buffer Memories in Survival Mode mentioning that supplies are no longer being delivered, Notes Left Behind in Survival Mode from people trying to get off the island, buildings all over the place with collapsed roofs and walls...

The island appears to have been mostly deserted long before we got there in Wintermute and Survival Mode.

Edited May 5 by ThePancakeLady
Typo corrections, as usual...

[nautofon]

The prisoners did have the element of surprise. And the townspeople probably haven't seen a lot of outsiders in recent decades, and therefore might not have developed that self-defense mindset of "shoot first, ask question later".

So this aspect of the game's story is plausible on some level, I suppose.

[Just some guy being a dude]

They didn’t mean to burn the school down they locked  every  one in the school so they couldn’t stop them from doing whatever they were doing at Milton and when the first aurora  happened an electrical cable lit the whole school on fire and they just left everyone in there 

[Veskaida]

On 5/5/2024 at 11:00 AM, Pyroxene said:

  Reveal hidden contents

What was the purpose of burning the school in episode 1? During a blizzard?

 

My suspicion is it was deliberate, given what

Spoiler

Hobbs

says about how the events transpired. Given (from their own testimony) that they/their faction were responsible, I think either they were proud of it/gloating or simply don't care about Will's perception of it or what happened/who was hurt.

 

On 5/6/2024 at 7:06 AM, Just some guy being a dude said:

They didn’t mean to burn the school down they locked  every  one in the school so they couldn’t stop them from doing whatever they were doing at Milton and when the first aurora  happened an electrical cable lit the whole school on fire and they just left everyone in there 

An interesting theory! I think there's actually quite a bit of evidence, albeit circumstantial across Great Bear Island to support this. I don't think there is a clear/definitive timeline for how the various (mostly houses) on GBI burned down, but I see three theories:

• Disaster: some fires/burnt structures in TLD are clearly accidental/environmental, namely Burned Ridge/Skeeter's Ridge in Pleasant Valley, and I think Ash Canyon is likely a similar in that it was an accidental fire (for some unknown cause) that resulted in a wildfire, given the house's ruins near the Fishing Hut.
• Accidental Arson: power went out during the First Flare, and many people tried to stay warm via woodfire stoves (I think this is at least partly supported by what

Spoiler

Grey Mother says in Episode 1)

• Deliberate Arson: e.g. prisoners escaped from Blackrock or other criminals/people losing their minds.
• Electrical Fire: I don't think we see any clear-cut examples of this in-game (or suggested through notes/etc), but The Aurora/First Flare definitely shorts electrical systems and causes shocks/burns, so I think this is a reasonable idea. Personally I like this the most: and while some fires were definitely caused by other sources, I like to think that this was the main cause for most e.g. burned houses. It fits TLD's theme of "nature VS humanity" very well, and it's plausible for all regions given current lore.

 

[Veskaida]

Played through Episode 1 again just now, just to check the dialogue and sequence of events again. The points made in my earlier post are correct (especially for other regions/locations in Survival Sandbox), but there is some dialogue I missed or didn't remember which definitively answers the sequence of events and the cause/sequence of events for the Milton Schoolhouse fire.

Spoilers for Wintermute: Episode 1 "Do Not Go Gentle"

Spoiler

HOBBS

"We burned them all, you know. In the old school. It was so easy, we just shoved them in and locked the door."

"It just happened. All the lights went out, ...People all hanging around... Trying to get warm after the power went out. All huddled together. Scared and freezing.

"Man I would have liked to have seen that. But we sure warmed them up!"

"We put them all in the old school house so we could keep an eye on them. And something happened with the lights... The power... It was like sparks everywhere and then fire."

"Your scarf lady found us while the school was burning. She tried to get them out. But it was already too late. Smoke already did 'em in."

My analysis:

Spoiler

All of this should be taken with a grain of salt, given we only have one (criminal) character's testimony, with only abstractions from Grey Mother that doesn't corroborate one ignition source or another (plus she's literally blind, she couldn't know because she couldn't see the ignition source, and she also wasn't there: she was down the road in her home).

However I do believe Hobbs is not lying, given he repeatedly incriminates himself/other Blackrock escapees for all events, and doesn't attempt to lie (that we know of), or mitigate culpability; all this while talking to Will while he literally needs Will's help to survive a knife injury. IMO pretty obviously Hobbs is telling the truth but is an unrepentant psychopath/sociopath, either that or is he insane and suicidal and is trying to convince Will to kill him.

• Milton's population was already inside the schoolhouse, or forced inside by Blackrock escapees.
• Most of Milton's population was inside schoolhouse at the time of the outbreak.
  • Bob Barker was not taken to the schoolhouse, likely because of his remote location or was already killed by wolves.
  • Grey Mother was not taken to the schoolhouse, likely because she is armed and defended herself (killing at least one Blackrock escapee when they tried to enter her home or take her to the schoolhouse).
  • Astrid arrived in Milton prior to the roundup and outbreak, "Your scarf lady found us while the school was burning."
  • Methuselah was not in Milton during the roundup, escaped/hid, or Blackrock escapees could not break inside the locked Orca Gas Station where Methuselah was.
• Hobbs admits responsibility/blame for the outbreak: "we burned them all".
• Hobbs was not inside the Schoolhouse at the time of the outbreak "I would have liked to have seen that".
• Hobbs could not have been inside (and survived) since it was locked (presumably from the outside) by Blackrock escapees.
• Hobbs at the outbreak was in Milton and near the Schoolhouse, since he saw "sparks everywhere and then fire". So he saw the outbreak and ignition source.

This answers the question of "what caused the Milton Schoolhouse fire" pretty definitively, assuming of course that this character isn't lying, but as stated above: they have multiple credible reasons 'to lie' and clearly, repeatedly,and without hesitation, mitigation or deflection admit to everything. So I think pretty obviously they are truthful (even admitting blame personally).

Edited July 3 by Veskaida