Ragwort

To save people having to read that entire linked thread, here's the starvation mechanic in its simplest form:

Thanks! I found birch (completely forgot about that XD) but no maple yet - have my eyes peeled though

Thanks! Guess I got lucky not running into him Days 9-11: After a clear and beautiful (if terrifying) night came a foggy morning. I hiked up to the higher trailer and rested an hour until the fog had cleared somewhat, before proceeding into the Ravine. Crossing the Trestle was harrowing, but after that the journey was uneventful. At the first cave I found a Mountaineering Rope (after carrying one all the way up from Coastal Highway!) and caught two rabbits. As I crossed the tree trunk to the other side of the Ravine it started to snow, and by the time I had lowered the rope down to Ravine Basin a blizzard was in full swing. I quickly descended the rope and hurried to the nearby cave. This was my home for two nights as I finished my archery book, caught another rabbit and harvested the deer carcass I found nearby, as well as processing various materials. After the second night I rose early and searched the train carriages I had rushed past before, finding a Distress Pistol, 4 Flare Shells and an Emergency Stim. Then half a cup of coffee, and I was ready for the climb back up out of the Ravine Basin. At the top I lit a fire and spent half an hour warming up, only to discover another deer carcass just a few meters away! I reminded myself to be more observant as I lit a second fire to thaw it. By the time I reached the last cave I had 3 Deer Hides, 3 Rabbit Pelts and 7 Guts, all of which I left to cure inside the cave. I must say I feel more confident for having had practice in both butchering and cooking game, even if it was in poor condition. There was also another deer carcass which I left untouched for the time being. It was getting late and I was somewhat tired, so I proceeded directly out of the Ravine towards Mystery Lake. At the Carter Hydro Dam I found yet another deer carcass. Tomorrow I will harvest both this and the one in the Ravine, which with the hides curing in the cave will be sufficient for both Deerskin Pants and Boots. One more rabbit and I will have enough for Rabbitskin Mitts as well (I am hardly in need of headgear!). This industy cannot be completed too soon, I fear, for even in the afternoon the air has a distinct chill compared to a week ago.

In that case, the Free Runner unlock could be something like "Traverse 3 regions within 24 hours", rather than being a very specific task that kind of duplicates an existing challenge. As an aside, I always thought the feats system was intended to help players move up a difficulty level, or give them confidence to do so.

I love the idea by@Lexilogo to make the feat conditions less grindy. One small simplification: The Free Runner unlock condition could just be "complete the Hopeless Rescue challenge".

Easier said than done sometimes, e.g., when there are blizzards for 3 days straight. Maybe it would help if I describe precisely how an ewma might work in this case? Because it removes the need to remember anything or take notes, unless you want more time to deal with cabin fever than is given by the risk notification. I'm taking the numbers from this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/thelongdark/comments/au9vlq/how_cabin_fever_works/ - I don't have in-game experience right now to corroborate the info in that thread but it should serve at least as an illustration. The tl;dr is that cabin fever triggers if you spend more than 125 out of any interval of 150 hours indoors. To convert this to an ewma you keep a running tally A of the number of hours spent indoors. Let A_t be the value of this tally after t hours. Each hour we update A according to: A_{t+1} = (149 / 150) A_t + H_{t+1} where H_t is the proportion of hour t spend inside. (So if you spent 45 minutes inside during hour t then H_t = 0.75 - i.e. three quarters.) You get cabin fever if ever A_t exceeds 125. In the link it's stated that cabin fever risk is equal to ({#hours indoors} - 110) / 15, and that it's displayed as soon as the {#hours indoors} exceeds 113. Assuming this is correct, we do exactly the same thing when using an ewma - just replace {#hours indoors} with A_t. The big advantage of this is that as soon as the cabin fever risk is displayed, you can know exactly how long you have before cabin fever triggers. I did a quick calculation: with these numbers a cabin fever risk of 20% (the value when it first appears) means you have 59 hours left (indoors, assuming no time spent outdoors), at 50% it means you have 40 hours left, and at 90% you have 15 hours left. With this system cabin fever risk rises smoothly and predictably when indoors and falls smoothly and predictably when outdoors. You don't get wild swings anymore where the risk appears and rises from 20% to 100% in only 12 hours. Nor does the risk ever stay at 50% for 24 hours straight, despite being indoors the entire time. And when you load up a save file after a month of dormancy, you can just look at your CF risk (if any) and get a rough idea of how soon you need to spend some time outside.

Thanks! I ended up going a different way but I did bring the rope with me. Oof it's heavy though 😆 Day 8: The day started windy with some snow, but good visibility nonetheless. I reached Coastal Townsite over the ice, avoiding the wolves on one side. By the time I reached the town the weather had cleared. Most of the buildings had been destroyed; only Quonset Garage and two houses remained. One of them was guarded by a great beast, and as you can imagine I kept my distance!! I found two boxes of Matches (one in the other house, one in a car) and in Quonset I found a Jerry Can, another Hacksaw and a small bottle of Antibiotics. The latter I hope not to need, but one can never be too safe! I also found some food and for the first time since the crash I had a proper lunch. Leaving the townsite was trickier as one wolf had moved to block the way I had come, but fortunately the road was clear. Once beyond the wolves I returned via the ice to my cache at Log Sort and butchered the ravaged deer carcass I had spotted earlier. The poor beast provided my grateful self with dinner and its hide, hopefully for future clothing - waste not, want not. I packed up my things and found the weight excessive, so with a pang I had to leave behind the Jerry Can and various other luxuries I had collected. They will still be there if I choose to come this way again. Emerging onto the road from Log Sort I caught sight of a wolf, and had to creep across so it would not spot me in return! That made it too risky to search the lower section of the Coal Mine - perhaps another time. In any case my pack was already somewhat overloaded. I ascended the winding road towards the train tracks, but checked myself when I heard the telltale sounds of the Aurora. Rather than risk going on I found a trailer halfway up in which to rest for the night.

Day 7: I awoke feeling parched with thirst, and with my water supply running low I hastened to a nearby Fishing Hut to boil some more. The fire took several tries to light and I winced at the painful cold until it finally caught. Once my canteen was full again I explored Jackrabbit Island, finding another precious box of matches, and the Fishing Village where I gathered a pair of Work Boots, a Mountaineering Rope and a small bottle of Painkillers. The bright and clement weather cheered my heart along the way. I dropped off the heavier items at the trailer near Log Sort and made my way to Misanthrope's Homestead. There I found some fuel for my Lantern - a boon, as it had been running desperately low. I considered making a bid for the Waterfront Cottages, but I could not make out if they were even still standing. In any case I could see a Bear wandering between the island and the shore, making any immediate crossing highly risky. The other option was to go directly to Quonset Garage, where I hope I might find a Bedroll for the trip to Mystery Lake, or a Prybar to more thoroughly search the hydroelectric Dam there. However, it was getting late and I feared being trapped in the garage overnight. Therefore I contented myself with collecting some fuel and waiting to see what the morrow would bring.

Funny you should suggest that... 😆 Day 6: My sleep, unfortunately, was not a restful one. I awoke in the night with a wrenching cramp in my stomach. Doubled over with the pain, I remembered the medicinal properties of the Reishi mushrooms I had gathered earlier and drank a cup of the tea I had prepared for the morning. It was disgusting to choke down the cold tea, but it helped and I slept, if fitfully, for the rest of the night. When I awoke, weak rays of sunlight were already streaming in through the windows of the hall. I had overslept, but at least I felt a little better. The weather outside for once was crisp and clear, and I resolved that today would be the day I left Blizzard Valley, hopefully for good! I heated some tea as usual, lit my torch and set off along the road towards Cinder Hills Coal Mine. On the way I gathered some more Cattails and Reishi Mushrooms for sustenance, feeling grateful for their aid last night. I drank some of my tea but it had already gone cold in the biting wind, and provided me little warmth. As I reached the turn for the mine the wind began to pick up - and more worryingly, I spotted a wolf along the track. Rather than be bitten by both the frost and the prowling beast, I huddled behind a rock and lit a small fire. The fire warmed my limbs, but my heart chilled when I saw flakes of snow carried along by the wind. If I was caught in a storm now then there was no way I could be sure of avoiding the wolf. So I hastened, drinking another cup of tea (this one mercifully hot) and grabbing some torches from the fire. Alas, the wind blew out my torches as fast as I could light them, and I had no choice but to proceed without fire to hand. I saw no sign of the wolf and proceeded along the track. Then, as I approached a corner, I heard a bark and a squeal from somewhere nearby - no doubt, the wolf was near. I tried taking a wide path around the corner but to my dismay the wolf was even nearer than I had thought. Its bark and growl froze my blood. I fumbled in my coat for the Flare I had found at Signal Hill, and lit it without hesitation. The wolf was checked momentarily by the Flare and I gave it a wide berth, proceeding up the track and the retreating up the hill towards the mine. I was followed all the way to the mine entrance, but thankfully no further. In the mine I found a Hacksaw, an Emergency Stim and over 6 kilograms of coal. The blizzard, it seems, followed me to Coastal Highway but I knew there was only one way open to me - forward. I ran through the blizzard as far as the Log Sort, catching my breath at the trailer and cabins on the way. At the Log Sort I was dismayed to see the house, which I had hoped to take refuge in, razed to the ground. Fortunately the nearby trailer was still intact, and I will shelter here until tomorrow. I dearly hope I will sleep more soundly tonight...

If you think about how a simple moving average works and how an ewma works, you will see it is the other way around. Using an ewma simplifies, rather than complicates, the mechanic from the player's point of view. There is nothing to calculate - the risk displayed by the game tells you everything.

Hmm, fair enough - simple moving average was my interpretation of what the wiki said, based on what I've experienced in-game. I've also read other discussion of Cabin Fever which arrived at the same conclusion. In any case, these properties: would be strongly satisfied by an ewma.

Day 5: I woke feeling better than I have since the crash, and was relieved to find that the storm had passed. Outside was a thin, cold fog - but very little wind. I warmed some tea and set off for Thomson's Crossing, torch in hand. The road was quiet, and my heart rose when I saw through the fog the first outlines of the village. I stowed what belongings I did not immediately need in the hall, and went back out to explore the rest of the town. The wind was picking up as I made my way to the next house along the road. As I was searching inside I heard what I had dreaded - the tell-tale sounds of the storm's return. My hopes of further progress today were, as it turned out, not to be. Feeling considerable anxiety, I dashed from house to house searching for more supplies. I found a flask of Accelerant in the hall and some planks in the first house, which I quickly smashed for firewood. I then returned to the hall to rest and finish my book. As I read the last few pages I heard the storm abate outside. It was too late in the day to travel on, but I went out again anyway. Tomorrow I will have to traverse the old mines, and I felt a twinge of dread at the thought of being so long underground. The sun had just set as I emerged, and to my astonishment I realised that I had completely missed one of the houses in the blizzard! After searching it I climbed into a truck near the gas station and listened to the sound of the waterfall. I felt peaceful as I headed back to the hall in the nearly-faded twilight, and I indulged myself with a chocolate bar I had been saving before drifting off to sleep.

This isn't about balance. Changing to an ewma wouldn't directly make it easier to avoid cabin fever (for example, a simple strategy like "spend every 6th night in a fishing hut" wouldn't work anymore). But it would make the system more intuitive and make the risk increase and decrease more gradually. It is only in this respect that the affliction would be easier to deal with.

The wiki says it's a simple moving average: https://thelongdark.fandom.com/wiki/Cabin_Fever I imagine anomalies of the kind you describe are the result of a lag or quirk in reporting (e.g., the game waiting until the end of a day to move the window forward).

Currently the Cabin Fever affliction is applied based on a simple moving average of time spent outdoors over the last 6 days. This creates frustrating situations where you spend the whole day outside and your Cabin Fever Risk increases (because exactly 6 days ago, you spend not only the day outside but the night as well). Whereas at other times you can spend just a couple of hours outdoors and see the risk decrease (because exactly 6 days ago, you were sheltering inside from a blizzard all day). Unless the player is tracking precisely their time spent outdoors each day, this tends to appear arbitrary. An exponentially-weighted moving average is pretty much the same as a moving average, but it doesn't have the annoying tendencies described above. Risk today depends only on risk yesterday and time spent outdoors today. Moreover the implementation is trivial (even easier than a simple moving average).