Story Speculation: WINTERMUTE and TALES

[Veskaida]

Spoilers for BOTH "WINTERMUTE" (Story Mode) episodes 1-5 and all "TALES" from the "Tales From The Far Territory" expansion: "Signal Void", "Buried Echoes" and "Final Horizon".

This is a list of gathered information about The Long Dark's story from WINTERMUTE, TALES and external media about possible narrative connections and speculation of causes for the settings apocalypse: The First Flare/Aurora, The Case and what is happening in Perseverance Mills.

If you don't want to get spoiled for WINTERMUTE (including the upcoming "Episode 5 - The Light at the End of All Things" and/or TALES FROM THE FAR TERRITORY I would highly recommend not reading further. If you have comments/feedback or additional information/theories you'd like to share, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

As of writing this WINTERMUTE Episode 5 is unreleased, so the information regarding this episode is not necessarily accurate or canon.

Abbreviations:

Spoiler

• TLD: The Long Dark
• WINTERMUTE/Story Mode: The 5-part episodic story mode of The Long Dark.
• GBI: Great Bear Island, the setting for The Long Dark.
• TFTFT: the "Tales From The Far Territory" expansion
• TFT: "The Far Territory" mega-region added in TFTFT.
• TALES: the 3-part episodic story content from TFTFT
• TFF/The First Flare and Aurora: The cause for TLD's apocalyptic setting. Both terms are similar and sometimes used interchangeably in-lore; I will use "Aurora" for general Aurora phenomena and "First Flare" for the first Aurora which canonically occurs at the start of Wintermute Episode 1: Do Not Go Gentle.
• Rüdiger's machine/project, and "machine"/"project"/"experiment" are all synonymous

The Long Dark is a post-apocalypic setting where a "geo-magnetic storm" has destroyed humanity on the fictional "Great Bear Island" in the Canadian wilderness in the year 20XX. The story of Tales From The Far Territory is canonically connected to WINTERMUTE: "Story within Survival... And connect back to the WINTERMUTE storyline which culminates in Episode 5".

State of Great Bear Island

Spoiler

• Landslides and destroyed industry: likely caused by The Great Bear Earthquake, like much of  GBI
• Decay: industries in GBI and TFT have been mostly abandoned since at least the 1980's based on notes. TLD takes place in 20XX, ~20+ years has taken place between this and Wintermute/TFTFT.
• The Collapse: a severe world-wide economic recession/depression which global society seems to have not yet recovered from.
• Reckless Industrialization/Misuse: Mostly in the Zone of Contaminion region (namely the numerous chemical spills and Overladen Pond), but also Bryerhouse's illegal logging in BR, ML, CH regions and possibly elsewhere.
• Looting: people of GBI consuming resources, and damaging/destroying equipment or structures.
• Auroras: while confirmed in causing damage to The Far Territory, TFF/Auroras cause death and damage in other parts of GBI.

My takeaway with TFTFT is the TALES story:

• TLD begins with a plane flight and currently Forsaken Airfield is the only airport revealed on GBI. I believe Mackenzie was flying to Forsaken Airfield in Wintermute when The First Flare occured.
• It is also possible Perserverence Mills or an as-of-yet unreleased region has an airport/airstrip, or since Mackenzie's aircraft is a seaplane with pontoons that Perserverence Mills is a coastal region and Mackenzie planned on landing on the water.

TALES is primarily about a network of hidden bunkers and experiments by Rüdiger on a machine he built/designed with a team in Zone of Contamination.

• There are two types of bunkers in TLD:
  • Fallout Shelters: nine Prepper Bunkers and the "Prepper's Abandoned Cache" in Pleasant Valley. These have "Fallout" signs and seem unrelated to TALES.
  • Diefenbunker: Bunker Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Omega. Large prefabricated rooms with facilities for more people/experiments/longer residence. These are all associated with TALES.

The Fallout Shelters were created as a result of The Cold War for common Canadian citizens, and are located near population centers of GBI. The TALES Diefenbunkers were created for government/military personnel and were repurposed for or created later for Rüdiger's experiments.

Characters of Tales From The Far Territory

Spoiler

Major Characters

The major characters of TFT are parts of Rüdiger's project and members of his team.

• Rüdiger: a powerful, wealthy and influential old man who came to GBI with a team to build a machine. He knows he is being hunted by an spy/assassin. Rüdiger built or installed a machine trying to pursue "my moment", and is more knowledgeable about the project than everyone else and is withholding information from them. He may possibly be aware of a coming 'mass extinction event' ("When the slate is wiped clean") which may be 'Wintermute' or 'The Long Dark' itself.
• Security Chief: "Vertasky" Employee of Jahnn Industries. Possibly hired by Rüdiger to protect him/the project, likely from a spy/assassin he fears.
• Foreman: the spy/assassin/hitman infiltrating Rüdiger's team and trying to kill him. Works for "The Company" and "administration".
• Chief Medical Officer: a psychologist who interviews multiple workers of the Rüdiger project as they become mentally ill.
• Patient Seven: a resident of GBI or Worker of the Rüdiger Project who becomes mentally ill, and is examined by Chief Medical Officer.
• Workers of Rüdiger's project: an unknown number of staff presumably from Canada.

Minor Characters

• Forsaken Airfield worker: a new hire at the FA airfield who seems to notice an unusual volume of possibly military-grade hardware arriving. Basically keeps his/her head down and does not involve themselves in it. This hardware arriving is likely the Rüdiger Project or Rüdiger's Machine itself.
• Forsaken Airfield citizen: resident of FA and possibly an airfield worker who is afflicted with insomnia and possibly describes Glimmer Fog.
• Boss' Note Guy: A visitor to Zone of Contamination in the 1990's who finds much of the industrial pollution in the region, and small amounts of knowledge about the Rüdiger project, but is unable to find more information without The Respirator. Likely dies from hypothermia in ZOC.

Rüdiger's Machine

Spoiler

Rüdiger's Machine is in an electromagnetic generator or emitter in TFT inside the Langston uranium mine in "Zone of Contamination", Canada. There are notes, schematics and logs of this machine and it's effects it has on workers of Rüdiger's project inside the Diefenbunkers and the locked levels of Langston Mine. Given what Rüdiger, Security Chief and Foreman say: it seems that Rüdiger understood the function/purpose of this machine, but none of the other staff did until it was energized, and even then only some of it's effects and not the consequences.

Effects of Rüdiger's Machine when powered:

• Glimmerfog Weather across the TFT (not all GBI)
• Energizes Electronics: lights, radios, Handheld Shortwave Radio, computers
• Mental Illness: (in humans) insomnia, recurring/similar dreams, memory loss and increasing aggression
  • based on proximity and time of exposure
  • increases in severity with time, regardless to continued exposure (long-term or permanent)
  • visions/dreams of water or empty spaces are common. Rüdiger and Security Chief both describe dreams/visions of large bodies of water, the Patient studied by
• Auroras =/= Glimmer Fog: An important distinction since Auroras occur across all of GBI, but Glimmer Fog only occurs in proximity of Rüdiger's Machine (TFT). Glimmer Fog also does not cause predators to become "aurora predators" (e.g. black Wolf -> Aurora Wolf) or non-predators to flee.

The Security Chief went on a suicidal mission into Langston Mine to try and destroy, damage or unpower Rüdiger's machine. I believe "unpowered" is canonical, since that best explanations how/why Rüdiger's Machine is still able to operate in TFT when The Aurora re-energizes it.

Knowing this, I think it's important to compare the effects of Rüdiger's Machine with The Aurora.

The Aurora

Spoiler

 

• Aurora Weather occurs across all regions of Great Bear Island
• Energizes unpowered electrical equipment (lights, radios, Handheld Shortwave Radio, computers)
• Destroys and disables electrical equipment
• Causes fires from electrical short circuits
• Mental Illness (animals): increasing aggression in predators and causing non-predators to flee
• Causes Orca to become stranded en-mass

 

There definitely are similarities to the two, but Rüdiger's Machine does not necessarily operate when an Aurora is active, otherwise Glimmer Fog would be synonymous with Aurora wildlife in TFT. So either Rüdiger's Machine is a weaker version of the device causing The Aurora, or it is a machine simulating a more powerful natural process e.g. a solar flare/coronal mass ejection from The Sun is causing The Aurora.

Rüdiger's Machine Theories

Spoiler

Rüdiger's exact intentions or goals are unclear with making/installing/operating this machine in TFT. The Security Chief's logs suggests Rüdiger knew of what would happen all along with the machine/experiments, but Rüdiger's speech "My Testament" seems more ambiguous, or even idealistic.

Possible Rüdiger Motivations:

• Malicious "Mad Scientist": Rüdiger is trying to destroy the world and/or humanity; and Rüdiger, his experiment(s), legacy, or technology are responsible for TLD's apocalypse.
• Malicious "Egoist": Rüdiger is not suicidal but wants to discover/invent something new, and doesn't care for who gets hurt in the process.
• Benevolent "Naive/Unawares": Rüdiger is unaware of the consequences of his actions and harms people on accident, or is aware of possible harm but is ill-prepared for the consequences.
• Benevolent "Desperate": Rüdiger is aware of consequences for his machine/experiments, but something is forcing him to cut corners. i.e. an impending unavoidable disaster.

"A different world is coming. I am certain of it, and I will be prepared". It is only a matter of WHEN and it is in uncovering the WHEN that I will define my moment."

Given these lines, I do not think Rüdiger was malicious with his goals. Naive or misinformed, maybe. But I interpret this as Rüdiger was aware of a coming apocalypse.

Rüdiger's Machine's Theories

• Mass Extinction Event: possibly 'The Long Dark' or 'Wintermute' itself, or experimentation involving it. Rüdiger talks about both a "New Horizon" and "geological times when the slate is wiped clean"; both which sound like new eras and/or mass extinction events (e.g. metaphorically the sun is setting on the 'day' of mankind, and is rising on a 'new horizon'). It is possible Rüdiger knows something about the coming First Flare/Aurora apocalypse, though this may not mean that Rüdiger or his machine (or technology/mankind) caused The Long Dark/Wintermute/The Aurora but that he is aware it is coming or a possibility, and is trying to study it, potentially to prepare humanity for it.
• Accidental Side-Effect: aka a "Black Swan" event, e.g. Rüdiger was trying to invent/discover something unrelated like a new power source but in this experimentation/development caused/discovered the unintended consequences.
• Psychological/Neurological Experiment: Security Chief suggests Rüdiger knew some/all of the consequences of his machine, and possibly was studying the effect of the machine on workers (e.g. the Psychologist's logs), not the machine/process itself. There was at least one psychologist on the team, but whether this was the project's goal, someone pre-emptively brought onto the project by Rüdiger (benevolently) trying to monitor the health of his workers, or (malevolently) trying to study the effect his machine had on his workers is unclear.
• Weapons Testing: possibly with GBI/TFT as the site for secrecy, safety or containment. We know there is a military presence on GBI given Jeremiah is there and what Jeremiah says about the "signal repeater network".

Given what Jeremiah says in Wintermute about the relay towers on GBI (the same ones we repair in Survival Mode when doing TALES), I believe that he is directly talking about the Diefenbunker network and signal network, meangin that they are both military-made (likely the Canadian armed forces). This also makes it likely but not guaranteed that Rüdiger was a cold-war era military experiment, and that The Foreman could be a Soviet spy.

The Long Dark Timeline:

A list of Wintermute and Perserverence Mills Connections, chronologically:

Items directly related to The Aurora, Rüdiger Machine and Perserverence Mills are bolded.

Spoiler

Pre-Game

• ~1911: A coal boom occurs on Great Bear
• 1911: Milton (Mountain Town) is established.
• 1919: Thomson's Crossing (Pleasant Valley) established.
• Cinder Hills Coal Mine, Abandoned Mine No. 3, and Abandoned Mine No. 5 are likely made.
• 1930's: Mystery Lake Railroad Project begins.
• 1945-1950: Blackrock Penitentiary is constructed.
• The Great Quake mining accident, at least one major earthquake kills many miners. Mining boom ends.
• 1960's: Carter Hydro Dam is built in the 1960's by industrialist John Carter.
• 1960's: Carter Hydro Dam partially closes due to seismic activity on GBI.
• The Forest Talkers, a group of environmental terrorists becomes active on GBI in response to industrialization.
• Carter Hydro Dam is partially abandoned due to increasing costs, Forest Talker activity and lobbying.
• The Cold War begins
• The Canadian Armed Forces builds a network of fallout shelters (for civilians), diefenbunkers (for military/government) and signal relay towers on GBI.
• Langston Mining Corporation begins mining and concentrating uranium in ZOC.
• "The Quakes": series of major earthquakes destroy much of GBI's industies, notably the Trans-Island Rail Line. Langston Mining Corporation's poisonous and corrosive byproducts contaminate much of Zone of Contamination.

Tales From The Far Territory (1980s)

• Rüdiger's team arrives in TFT and builds/assembles Rüdiger's Machine in the now-abandoned Langston Mine.
• The Foreman and his workers arrive in ZOC.
• Rüdiger's machine is partially-energized and exceeds expectations, and workers start showing symptoms.
• Chief Medical Officer arrives on GBI and begins conducting experiments on members of Rüdiger's team and possibly GBI citizens.
• Rüdiger's machine is fully energized.
• "Subjects" (workers or GBI residents) affected by Rüdiger's machine are quarantined inside diefenbunkers around GBI, away from TFT and Rüdiger's Machine.
• First Medical Officer and Security Chief travel between diefenbunkers, performing examinations on subjects.
• Symptoms become out of control, workers start wandering off.
• Security Chief, Foreman and Rüdiger to a lesser extent begin showing symptoms.
• Rüdiger's team attempts extraction but the helicopter crashes in northern ZOC, likely from electrical interference or symptoms caused by Rüdiger's Machine.
• Security Chief goes on a suicidal mission to destroy Rüdiger's machine, likely only unpowers it and then dies.
• The Foreman escapes The Langston Mine.
• Rüdiger flees and is killed by The Foreman.

Intergame

• Bryerhouse: a logging company begins operation on GBI, likely illegally logging in ML, MT, BR and CH. Repeatedly comes to blows with Forest Talkers.
• 1990's: Carter Hydro Dam fully closes
• The Collapse: A major global financial crisis which causes considerable damage to the global economy.

Episode 1 - Do Not Go Gentle

• The Rüdiger Machine in Perseverance Mills becomes active.
• Perseverance Mills citizens begin to show symptoms of insomnia and drowning
• Perseverance Mills thinks it has an "outbreak" of an unknown disease, citizens begin wearing masks and enter quarantine.
• 20XX: Dr. Astrid Greenwood works for "Seraphim" a medical company conducting sleep experiments.
• Astrid is called by someone at Perseverance Mills.
• Astrid steals a/the "cure" from Seraphim to "the disease", stores it in a locked metal "Case".
• Astrid takes The Case to Will and they fly her to GBI.
• The First Flare destroying destroyed human civilization or most of humanity, crashing Mackenzie's Plane.
• Methuselah seems to understand/know what is happening. Given his age, he may be a surviving member of Rüdiger's team or was a resident of GBI affected by Rüdiger's Machine's.

Episode 2 - Luminance Fugue

• Jeremiah, his equipment and what he tells us about GBI ("network of signal relay towers across the island") suggests he is military and that there was/is a military presence on GBI.
• Jeremiah seems to understand what/why The Aurora is happening, and tries to send a message "Wintermute" to an 'Atwood' in Perseverance Mills.

Episode 3 - Crossroads Elegy

• Ending cinematic shows beached orca dead/dying on the coastline, Astrid comments that the "aurora isn't just affecting humans".

Episode 4 - Fury Then Silence

• A note in the Blackrock region mentions the writer suffering from "memory" problems.
• Will meets Jace, an astrophysics graduate student under Atwood
• The Suzuki Radio Telescope, which exists in an unoccluded zone: aka a wilderness area with minimal electromagnetic or light pollution for observing stellar phenomena.

Episode 5 - The Light at the End of All Things (SPECULATIVE)

• A Rüdiger Machine exists in the Perserverence Mills region or adjacent to it.
• This second Rüdiger Machine was active before The First Flare, otherwise PM citizens couldn't have symptoms.
• The citziens of Perserverence Mills likely do not fully understand what is happening, as they seem to be wearing face masks and have baggy, sunken eyes (sign of insomnia).
• Rüdiger, Astrid, Jeremiah, Methuselah and Atwood know at least partially what is happening.
• Seraphim likely knows about Rüdiger's project and/or it's mental effects as well.
• Jace is an astrophysicists and Atwood likely is, with them working at the Suzuki Radio Telescope, studying celestial phenomena, likely geo-magnetic from Great Bear island.

Conclusions

Spoiler

Because of this I believe:

• E.W. who Rüdiger mentions is Emil Wiechert a German physicist and geophysicist who studied electromagnetism.
• Rüdiger was aware of some fictional geomagnetic phenomenon unique to the world of The Long Dark, and created Rüdiger's Machine to try and understand this phenomenon, or use it, likely because he realized an impending mass-extinction event, possibly caused by a coronal mass ejection was not only possible but imminent.
• The Canadian government/military was so concerned about Rüdiger's discoveries, despite the failure of Rüdiger's machine killing most/all of the team, that Jeremiah and likely Atwood were assigned to Great Bear to monitor the situation.
• Seraphim and Astrid have some connection with Rüdiger's experiments, likely re-creating Rüdiger Machines or has learned from his experiments.
• There is/was an active Rüdiger Machine before The First Flare in Perseverance Mills or an adjacent region on GBI, which was afflicting citizens of Perseverance Mills with insomnia and suicidal ideation or sleepwalking by drowning/freezing in the water.
• The Foreman may have survived the events of TFT and may be an employee of Seraphim ("The Company"), and Rüdiger may have been killed as corporate sabotage or that Seraphim stole/found Rüdiger's schematics after his death.

Closing Thoughts: I hope you enjoyed reading this essay as much as I enjoyed writing it. 📰✏️ 🐺

I believe that all information for "WINTERMUTE Episode 1-4", "TALES" and external media is accurate by currently-canon (redux) sources, and that all speculation for "Episode 5 - The Light at The End of All Things" is as accurate as possible given what we currently know.

If you have something you'd like to add I'd love to hear your own theories, thoughts, opinions, feedback, criticism, puns, or snarky haikus, etc.

Edited July 4 by Veskaida

[Pınar51-06]

I always liked playing story mode and ı am desperately waiting for episode 5. Thanks for the topic. It looks so right to me except Methuselah.

Spoiler

I love to think that Methuselah is older version of Mackenzie or Mackenzie and Astrids son. Or maybe he is Mackenzie’s imaginary friend. It looks so impossible but 😬

 

[Veskaida]

14 hours ago, Pınar51-06 said:

I always liked playing story mode and ı am desperately waiting for episode 5. Thanks for the topic. It looks so right to me except Methuselah.

Thank you so much for the comment! Interesting theory! I've seen a few similar ideas to this that have been shared around, here is my thoughts on them:

My theory is that Methuselah has

Spoiler

some insider knowledge on Rüdiger and/or The Aurora; maybe also Perseverance Mills, Atwood and "Wintermute". But he definitely seems to know what is happening. I think he could be a survivor of the Rüdiger project (member of the team), or a GB Islander who was experimented on or witnessed some of the events "This has all happened before!". Methuselah looks like he's in his 60's to 80's, though probably on the older side. So if he was alive during the Rüdiger experiments in the 1980's at ~40, he could ~80 in Wintermute).

Suppose Methuselah could also simply be a "crazy old man" like Will says, but I'm not sure that'd make an interesting character/story; so I think he's more than that. Don't think there are really any connections to Will and Methuselah either. They're both stuck on GBI, are humans, men, have beards and speak english: but that's about it. Neither seems to know one another, act, dress or speak similarly.

Methuselah could be:

• Figment of Mackenzie's imagination (hallucination, trauma, guilt, etc): there isn't enough foreshadowing for this as a payoff, and while TLD has 'some' fantastical elements (Aurora, Rudiger's Machine, Darkwalker, White Stag, Demon Bear), it's more grounded than fantastic. The only really strange thing about Methuselah is how he keeps following Will, but this could easily be explained as stalking/coincidence/etc. not necessarily supernatural.
• Guardian Angel/Alien/etc: Same point as above, TLD is more grounded than fantastic and I don't see any clear characteristics of Methuselah which suggest he could be some otherworldly being.
•  "Old" Mackenzie: reminiscing on 'how it all started/we got here'. These two characters don't look, dress, act or speak like one another in just about any way. Similar a really cool idea and it 'could' have worked for TLD, but there just is no buildup for this sort of payoff.
  • Mackenzie's Father: Raph made this post recently confirming a version of Will's backstory as canon: in it Mackenzie's father is canonically dead. So he can't literally be his father (and alive), but Will also doesn't seem to recognize or understand most of what Methuselah says: so I don't see a 'familial connection' payoff.
• Will/Astrid's Son: hehe, I've made a few joke posts about this here on the forums. Though I don't think time travel, unnatural aging, revivification etc. are elements of TLD.

Edited July 6 by Veskaida

[Muk_Pile]

Excellent theorizing, @Veskaida! This mystery has really got my puzzle-solving gears grinding, too!

Just a few observations I'd like to point out, as well as a few theories of my own:

Spoiler

• It seems like whatever was causing everyone to loose their minds wasn't just the Machine (though it may have amplified their symptoms), since the workers were already experiencing medical ailments and exhibiting volatile behaviors before the machine had even been constructed (see Security Chief's Log #14).
• There is a note inside the Main Hanger at the Airfield from one of Rudiger's underlings, which gives us the date that "the build has the green light", which is September 25, 1982.
  • This is interesting as it aligns very closely with the 10th anniversary of a powerful solar storm that hit North America on August 4, 1972.
    • This event might have been what inspired Rudiger to build his Machine (perhaps it was suppose to simulate a solar storm, so that he could study its effects and use the knowledge to protect his own assets when the next solar storm hit).
  • 1982 is also coincidentally 40 years before the Long Dark was first conceived in 2012 (which is might be when the game canonically takes place) after a Carrington-class solar storm barely missed the Earth in July.
• I have a theory that the Machine is some kind-of electric capacitor, capable of storing massive amounts of electricity and quickly dumping it all at once, producing an EMP (just like a solar flare). However, since the Security Chief managed to deactivate the Machine, it doesn't become fully operational when the Aurora energizes it. Instead, it passively stores the Aurora's electric charge, which leaks-out slowly over the course of few days through its support structure, energizing the ground in the surrounding territories, which causes the Glimmer Fog.
• I also have a theory that the bunkers may have been used to refine the uranium from the mines, so it could be covertly sent back to power the Machine with the generators that were installed (see Foreman's Site Report Day #45), since each bunker contains a large metal cylinder attached to numerous intake and outtake pipes (which could be a centrifuge) and schematics of a cylinder containing a rotating fluid in Bunker Alpha (see I think I recognize this. for a picture).

[Raphael van Lierop]

🤔

Really interesting conclusions and an impressive amount of work collecting all this information together!

There are a few statements in here that I'm not clear are your assumptions or if they are things you feel are explicitly stated in the game, for example:

• Quote

  The Canadian Armed Forces builds a network of fallout shelters (for civilians), diefenbunkers (for military/government) and signal relay towers on GBI.

   

This would not be accurate to the lore/story we have presented in the game (although it's an interesting conclusion!). There are some other statements throughout that seem to be guesses but they are not stated as "speculative" so I'm not 100% sure where you got these ideas from. 

What I *will* say is that the majority of these questions will be answered for you in Episode Five, and then you'll have a chance to see how close (or far) you were to/from the truth. 😇

Thank you for putting this together! It's always fun when people get into the lore/world we've created, as it's so important to us!

[Veskaida]

On 7/20/2024 at 1:52 PM, Raphael van Lierop said:

What I *will* say is that the majority of these questions will be answered for you in Episode Five, and then you'll have a chance to see how close (or far) you were to/from the truth. 😇

Thank you for putting this together! It's always fun when people get into the lore/world we've created, as it's so important to us!

 😭❤️Thank you so much for the reply and kind words! Look forward to playing Episode 5 and your future projects, love you guys and this gameworld you've made.

On 7/20/2024 at 1:52 PM, Raphael van Lierop said:

This would not be accurate to the lore/story we have presented in the game (although it's an interesting conclusion!). There are some other statements throughout that seem to be guesses but they are not stated as "speculative" so I'm not 100% sure where you got these ideas from. 

• The Canadian Armed Forces builds a network of fallout shelters (for civilians), diefenbunkers (for military/government) and signal relay towers on GBI.

My intention was to separate between canonical and speculative information; of course I'd hold your word or anything said in-game to that higher standard. Sounds like that is a failure on my end: not providing more citations for canon items, or breaks better differentiate between canon/plausible theories versus more speculative ones.

This line was my attempt to gather many different posts/condense discussion chains on the FandomWiki, Reddit, Youtube and Steam. From my perspective much of these discussions were trying to explain the differences between the TALES bunkers and non-TALES bunkers differing in structure, size, make/materiel, internal consistency between types, and secrecy VS (relative) publicity.

 

On 7/17/2024 at 9:38 AM, Muk_Pile said:

Excellent theorizing, @Veskaida! This mystery has really got my puzzle-solving gears grinding, too!

Just a few observations I'd like to point out, as well as a few theories of my own:

  Hide contents

• It seems like whatever was causing everyone to loose their minds wasn't just the Machine (though it may have amplified their symptoms), since the workers were already experiencing medical ailments and exhibiting volatile behaviors before the machine had even been constructed (see Security Chief's Log #14).
• There is a note inside the Main Hanger at the Airfield from one of Rudiger's underlings, which gives us the date that "the build has the green light", which is September 25, 1982.
  • This is interesting as it aligns very closely with the 10th anniversary of a powerful solar storm that hit North America on August 4, 1972.
    • This event might have been what inspired Rudiger to build his Machine (perhaps it was suppose to simulate a solar storm, so that he could study its effects and use the knowledge to protect his own assets when the next solar storm hit).
  • 1982 is also coincidentally 40 years before the Long Dark was first conceived in 2012 (which is might be when the game canonically takes place) after a Carrington-class solar storm barely missed the Earth in July.

Interesting! I was not aware of a solar flare on this date, if this also happened in TLD's world I think that could be an excellent piece of foreshadowing or possibly an explanation for some in-game events. I'd be very curious to find out of it truly what was the source of this illness.

I'm less confident on such a "uranium" theory, especially one processed at the bunkers. That's certainly interesting, and ZoC definitely was a uranium mine, but I think that the Foreman mentioned in

Spoiler

one of the audio logs that (the team) was "bringing in enough generators to power a small town through winter" and even that he thought was "not enough" to power the machine. Which I assume he means were diesel/gasoline generators, and given the relative technology present in TLD's world (about on-par with our own) I don't think a miniaturized nuclear reactor seems plausible for Zone of Contamination. But maybe some radiological process with the machine itself.

 I guess there is still the question of "what is the material contaminating ZoC" is, since it seems quite toxic (wolves/player) and corrosive (player's clothes); a little unusual in my eyes for such a hazardous material to be shipped 'from' ZoC (to presumably some airport/port on GBI for export to the mainland). But I don't think it is likely this is high-level nuclear waste either. I also think the bunkers were clearly some kind of

Spoiler

psychological experiment, or perhaps a medical effort to quarantine people exposed to this mysterious illness. I don't recognize any radiologically-relevant symbols on any of the TALES schematics either: they look to me to mostly be electromagnets.

Clearly there is 'some' kind of mysterious

Spoiler

medical condition(s) on GBI (going back as early as Episode 1 of Wintermute), but as for how exactly this illness or even the aurora phenomena as a whole worlds (affecting wildlife and/or humans) or if TLD's world experiences electromagnetism different from ours, or this is a science-fiction medical element: possibly some kind of 'black swan' event/technology.

Hopefully we get answers to this major mystery of Wintermute, but given how much of the story is centered around a doctor, "The Case", and that Ep5 is at least partially set in Perseverance Mills imo those are all reasonable assumptions, especially to provide closure to Wintermute players who never bought/played TFTFT about why/what happened).

I've also seen similar discussions about this speculative illness in Episode 4: Fury then Silence with

Spoiler

"Sam", who seems to be suffering from similar symptoms: though I don't think we learn enough about them to determine if they are a GBI resident who traveled to Blackrock from Perserverence Mills (or another afflicted area), or if they're a survivor from Rüdiger's project in the 1980's (though I think that is quite a lot less likely, given how quickly all of the other victims of these symptoms seem to have deteriorated)

 

Personally I think the former is more plausible than the latter, especially given how dangerous the illness seems to be in TALES (how quick it's deterioration is), but I wouldn't also discount the possibility of someone(s) surviving it for an extended period of time (but 40 years is still a pretty long time).

 

 

Edited July 22 by Veskaida

[Sherri]

I thought we were told that the story in TFTFT has nothing at all to do with the story in Wintermute?? I'd be very interested to know if I misread this. If that's the case and they aren't connected at all... then having finished Last Horizon... I still have a lotta questions. lol

Edited July 22 by Sherri

[Veskaida]

13 minutes ago, Sherri said:

I thought we were told that the story in TFTFT has nothing at all to do with the story in Wintermute?? I'd be very interested to know if I misread this. If that's the case and they aren't connected at all... then having finished Last Horizon... I still have a lotta questions. lol

I included this in the OP (quoted from Hinterlands' website advertising TALES, hyperlink below), but I believe Wintermute and TFTFT have at least one connection between them.

On 7/3/2024 at 10:43 PM, Veskaida said:

The Long Dark is a post-apocalypic setting where a "geo-magnetic storm" has destroyed humanity on the fictional "Great Bear Island" in the Canadian wilderness in the year 20XX. The story of Tales From The Far Territory is canonically connected to WINTERMUTE: "Story within Survival... And connect back to the WINTERMUTE storyline which culminates in Episode 5".

Edited July 22 by Veskaida

[Raphael van Lierop]

2 hours ago, Veskaida said:

I included this in the OP (quoted from Hinterlands' website advertising TALES, hyperlink below), but I believe Wintermute and TFTFT have at least one connection between them.

Yes, this is correct. We laced various details throughout TALES that connect back to WINTERMUTE.

[Sherri]

8 hours ago, Raphael van Lierop said:

Yes, this is correct. We laced various details throughout TALES that connect back to WINTERMUTE.

Oooh ok. Awesome! That makes a lot more sense now.

[Veskaida]

Reposting what I said in since I feel it is relevant, but also a fair warning:

Spoilers for The Long Dark's "Wintermute" and "Tales From The Far Territory" expansion.

 

Researching further into geomagnetic storms I think it is also worth mentioning "Miyake Events"; Miyake Events are evidence for periods of extremely powerful solar activity from The Sun: Carbon-14 concentrations in tree rings and Beryillium-10 and Chlorine-36 in ice cores. Known dates for Miyake Events are 7,176 BCE, 5,259 BCE, 660 BCE, 774AD and 993AD. Miyake Events are a relatively newly discovered phenoma and thus are poorly understood, with a key difference between them and The Carrington Event of 1859 being scale and energy output: Carrington created anomalies in abnormal longitudes, where as Miyake Events are many orders of magnitude more powerful and produced phenomena on a global scale.

Personally I do not think that Miyake Events necessarily are relevant to TLD's story given they were only discovered ~10 years ago (2013/2014, or around the time TLD's Kickstarter was made), so unless TLD has undergone story changes since then to reflect this information I think TLD was made before this phenomena was discovered (or well understood);  even if this is not the case though, I still this this information is interesting to contextualize the energy levels which could be involved in a TLD-style apocalypse.

Comparison of energy released:

• The Hiroshima atomic bombing produced 15-16 kilotons of TNT worth of energy (1 kiloton is 1,000 metric tons)
• The Carrington Event had the equivalent energy of 660 billion (660,000,000,000) Hiroshima bombings worth of energy
• Miyake Events from 774AD and 993AD were both 500% more energetic than the Carrington Event
• Larger Miyake Events like that which occurred ~14,000 years ago was twice the size of 774/993 AD Miyake Events

Comparing the energy output of The Long Dark's "auroras" and "The First Flare" (assuming they are not localized in Canada/Great Bear Island but are a global phenomena), it is reasonable to assume TLD's energy output is somewhere greater than that of the Carrington Event (in 'most' ways) but likely less power than most Miyake Events, and discrepancies between the two could be mistakes or deliberate game design decisions by Hinterlands (e.g. what is more fun/interesting gameplay vs realism).

Similarities between TLD and Carrington/Miyake Events:

• Spoiler

  • Sparking/fires from electrical devices/wires, shocking people (though only superficially, not to the level of hazard TLD's electrified wires/water, or burnt down structures reflect)
  • Electrical Devices being powered (even when turned off)
  • Abundant and abnormally bright auroras at longitudes which normally never experience them (bright enough to read at night).
  • Hinterlands has described TLD's apocalypse as a "geo-magnetic storm" since even early materials (Kickstarter, in-game Survival Sandbox Beta text, etc. and still reflects this in-game, TLD's store page, Hinterlands website, etc.).
  • Official Hinterlands videos (admittedly old/early in development) show real-world footage of Solar Flares ( e.g. "The Long Dark - What is The Long Dark? (Developer Diary)" in the thumbnail and at ~0:30, as well as other videos)
  • Rüdiger's Machine seems to be a magnetic dynamo or emitter and could be producing the "Glimmer Fog" weather in The Far Territory.
  • Potentially The Suzuki Radio-Telescope on Great Bear Island and Atwood/Jace/Jeremiah were observing solar activity (sun spots, solar flares, etc); if this was true then "Wintermute" could likely be an emergency codeword intended for the Canadian government (or a similarly relevant organization) warning of such an event.

TLD Detractions:

• Spoiler

  • Wildlife Behavior: TLD changes wildlife behavior during auroras (prey flee, predators show increased aggression, orca mass strandings, Black Bears (normally hibernate during winter) are active). This isn't necessarily a detraction since wildlife anomalies were not studied (or recorded/preserved) from The Carrington Event, but it is possible this still occurred.
  • Exposure to an energized Rüdiger's Machine (magnetic activity) causes insomnia, degenerative memory loss, hydrophilia, and suicidal ideation in humans.

Carrington/Miyake Event Detractions:

• Spoiler

  • Auroras so bright they were visible and present during the day (TLD auroras can only occur at night, though Glimmer Fog can occur during the day it is not even a pan-Great Bear phenomena and is localized to TFT for some reason (possibly because it is being generated by Rüdiger's Machine)
  • Carrington lasted continuously/near-continuously for ~17 hours, where as TLD's nights only last for ~9.5 hours. If this was reflected in-game it would mean Auroras which started one night would consistently last throughout "daytime" and into the start of the next night.

Wintermute/Rüdiger Detractions:

• Spoiler

  • Rüdiger's Machine is artificial and seems to be a magnetic dynamo or emitter, but not necessarily 'geo-magnetically'. I think this 'could' suggest that TLD's apocalypse is artificial in nature (though personally I dislike that idea for a number of reasons), but it could also mean that this phenomena is being actively studied in TLD's alternate timeline. This could mean that TLD's apocalypse is not a solar phenomena but is artificial in origin, or is a hybrid of both.
  • Rüdiger's machine only produce emissions when energized (which seems implausible from Auroras directly given how deep underground it is, and how good good rock is at shielding atmosphere magnetic activity (e.g. US military EMP weapons testing like Operation Starfish)). Though it is also possible Rüdiger's Machine is fully shielded from auroras directly, but is being powered from non-subsurface electronics/wiring connected which then feeds back subsurface to the mine.
  • Yet unexplained connection between Astrid, Seraphim Sleep Research Center, The Hard Case, Perseverance Mills, and the unknown female Astrid is trying to meet there. These are all likely related, and given "Tales From The Far Territory" and Rüdiger's story/machine is meant to tie-in to Wintermute, I think it is a fairly safe bet that there is some kind of machine similar to Rüdiger's in Perseverance Mills or a nearby region. The biggest question in my mind is how/why Astrid, Seraphim, and Unknown PM Female know about this
  • Yet unexplained motivation for and connections between Rüdiger making his machine in ZOC, and why The Foreman was trying to kill him,  Rüdiger being aware of this (possibly why he hired hiring Security Chief), or Jahn Industries connection to Rüdiger/his machine.
  • "Methuselah" seems aware of what The Aurora/First Flare is, why it is happening, or he is simply a didactic and totally insane but coincidentally accurate mysterious old man.

Given this (and TLD's representation of Auroras in-game) along with TLD literally calling them "Auroras" and "Geo-Magnetic Storm" I think it is a pretty safe bet that The Carrington Event is at least partially responsible for the inspiration of Hinterland's setting, but without words from Raph or other folks who've worked on TLD's narrative I guess it will likely remain a mystery (or perhaps be answered in Episode 5).

Edited November 9 by Veskaida

[Nervous Pete]

On 7/4/2024 at 6:43 AM, Veskaida said:

**** Incredibly insightful and clever musings ****

I just finished the tales and wrote a big chunk of what I thought it was in another thread, but I've now just read your brief and I do indeed think you're on the money. I figured out a lot of what you said myself, though we could both be hilariously wrong, but you've really brought into focus my vague notions with your excellent research. Your connection to the German physicist is pretty inspired too.

I also think Atwood possibly refers to Margaret Atwood, a very fine science-fiction writer. It might refer to one of her books, but I couldn't say which as I'd only read Oryx & Crake around fifteen years ago and which, genuinely gave me a breakdown consisting of depression and anxiety attacks. Such a thing was an unpleasant surprise, as I'd read a lot of classic sci-fi before then, including quite grim stuff by Ballard and Wyndham and Aldis... but something about Atwood terrifies me, so I've never been able to read anything by her again, or see any of her adaptations. Cheers Atwood!

[Nervous Pete]

On 7/20/2024 at 9:52 PM, Raphael van Lierop said:

🤔

Really interesting conclusions and an impressive amount of work collecting all this information together!

...

Thank you for putting this together! It's always fun when people get into the lore/world we've created, as it's so important to us!

Surprise shocking real-world twist! Raphael van Lierop is actually the real-world Rüdiger who went into hiding and decided that computer games development was the only way he could get the truth out! He will return into hiding when the eventual movie hits the big screen and Cigarette Smoking Men in darkened rooms everywhere harumph-harumph in shock and anger. 

[Veskaida]

12 hours ago, Nervous Pete said:

I just finished the tales and wrote a big chunk of what I thought it was in another thread, but I've now just read your brief and I do indeed think you're on the money. I figured out a lot of what you said myself, though we could both be hilariously wrong, but you've really brought into focus my vague notions with your excellent research. Your connection to the German physicist is pretty inspired too.

Thank you for the kind words. What was your favorite part of Tales? Did you have any 'close calls'? I'll check out your thread, would love to hear your thoughts and theories, agree or disagree!

12 hours ago, Nervous Pete said:

I also think Atwood possibly refers to Margaret Atwood, a very fine science-fiction writer.

Interesting! I'll have to check this out in preparation for Episode 5. Here's hoping it answers some of these many mysteries!

[Raphael van Lierop]

20 hours ago, Nervous Pete said:

I just finished the tales and wrote a big chunk of what I thought it was in another thread, but I've now just read your brief and I do indeed think you're on the money. I figured out a lot of what you said myself, though we could both be hilariously wrong, but you've really brought into focus my vague notions with your excellent research. Your connection to the German physicist is pretty inspired too.

I also think Atwood possibly refers to Margaret Atwood, a very fine science-fiction writer. It might refer to one of her books, but I couldn't say which as I'd only read Oryx & Crake around fifteen years ago and which, genuinely gave me a breakdown consisting of depression and anxiety attacks. Such a thing was an unpleasant surprise, as I'd read a lot of classic sci-fi before then, including quite grim stuff by Ballard and Wyndham and Aldis... but something about Atwood terrifies me, so I've never been able to read anything by her again, or see any of her adaptations. Cheers Atwood!

Margaret Atwood is a national treasure, probably best known for THE HANDMAID's TALE. I wouldn't characterize her as a science-fiction writer though. She's very much a literary fiction writer, who happens to have written some speculative fiction. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Atwood

[Nervous Pete]

41 minutes ago, Raphael van Lierop said:

Margaret Atwood is a national treasure, probably best known for THE HANDMAID's TALE. I wouldn't characterize her as a science-fiction writer though. She's very much a literary fiction writer, who happens to have written some speculative fiction. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Atwood

Ahh, that's a argument as old as the hills in the UK, whether a novelist considers a book they've written to be science fiction or not, or indeed if they are science fiction writers or not. There's a nice little article here in the Grauniad about it: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/apr/18/it-drives-writers-mad-why-are-authors-still-sniffy-about-sci-fi

Apparently according to the article Atwood didn't like the science fiction tag but has since come around a bit on it, with her stating that The Handmaid's Tale is science fiction. For me science fiction is anything work of fiction that posits an effect on an individual, group or society by a piece of unrealised or rare technology or hitherto unencountered phenomena rooted in real science. Such a work however has to pose a question and explore the ramifications. If you're doing that I consider it science fiction. Works that don't pose questions or speculate and are just rip-roaring adventures with spaceships replacing magic (or somethings having both at the same time) I'd call space fantasy or space romance, but I'm resigned to them being lugged in with science fiction.

So personally I would characterise Margaret Atwood as a science fiction writer, much as I think Aldous Huxley was for Brave New World even though he wrote many works that were completely outside of science fiction. Same for J. G. Ballard. (And by the way if you don't have Ballard's collected works of short-story science fiction get it. It's a huge volume and completely incredible.)