GothSkunk

Crows flying overhead - What does it mean, if NOT weather change?

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So The Long Dark Wiki says this about crows:

 

Quote

 

Flying in formationEdit

Occasionally a group of crows will be seen flying in "V" formation in a straight path across the map. The timing of their flight has no significance.

 

 

No significance? Really? Because it's been my experience that when the crows fly overhead, the weather changes moments later. Might be bad, might be better, but it DOES change.

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I'll keep an eye out also and see if it does have a correlation :)

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If memory serves they are referred to as Storm Crows (though maybe that is an unofficial community thing like naming "Fluffy," I don't know)... and I do believe they are meant to be your context clue that the weather is about to shift.

However, perhaps it is random... you can always look to see if this has been asked in previous Milton Mail Bag Dispatches... and if not... drop it in the Mail Bag Question thread.  :) 

 

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This part of the Wiki says something different.

Quote

Crows flying in formation in a straight path across a region can signal an imminent change in weather. When the player is near a bear, crows may give out a slightly more alarmed call, indicating that a bear is close by.

Maybe the use of the word 'timing' has a different significance than meaning they signify nothing. Maybe it's just saying that even though they may signal an imminent change in weather, it's not saying the weather will change within a specific time frame.

@ManicManiachad a good idea about asking in the Question topic.

 

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Confirmation bias.  The weather is always moments away from a change in this game, and crows quite often fly overhead.  You're only remembering the times those happened together, because when they didn't it wasn't worth paying attention to.

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36 minutes ago, Lurve said:

Confirmation bias.  The weather is always moments away from a change in this game, and crows quite often fly overhead.  You're only remembering the times those happened together, because when they didn't it wasn't worth paying attention to.

Definitely.  I've played custom games where I've dialed the weather change to various extremes.  I'll get crows, and no weather change.  I'll get crows, and weather change.  I have a suspicion that the crows fly by at very specific times in the day, like exactly 10:00am game time crows fly by, as a hypothetical example.  But since there's no in-game clock that we can see, I can't really confirm that.

....or can I?  I know it's possible to make a functional sundial by placing twigs around a pole or post or something in the game...

Well now I know what I'm doing tonight.

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Seems like a good question for the mailbag - I'll submit it.

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5 hours ago, Lurve said:

...The weather is always moments away from a change in this game, and crows quite often fly overhead.  You're only remembering the times those happened together, because when they didn't it wasn't worth paying attention to.

Possible yes.

4 hours ago, ajb1978 said:

...I've played custom games where I've dialed the weather change to various extremes.  I'll get crows, and no weather change.  I'll get crows, and weather change.

Also possible.  Though I would also suggest that it's possible for the crows to fly by signaling a weather RNG check, and it result in the weather remaining the same.

So whether it's coincidental, indicative, or just plain superstition on my part... I choose to believe in the wisdom of the crows :D 

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Crows can only fly during calm, weather. When the weather changes into one wherein they cannot fly, circling crows will increase in altitude until they disappear. But when the weather changes into one that they can fly in, sometimes a skein of crows will fly somewhere across the sky. I don't know what exactly triggers crow flight in skein but I do know that if I hear crows during weather that they cannot fly in, then the weather is currently changing into weather that they can fly in. This gives me time to plan my next moves just in case thick fog rolls in.

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On 5/28/2019 at 12:22 PM, Lurve said:

Confirmation bias.  The weather is always moments away from a change in this game, and crows quite often fly overhead.  You're only remembering the times those happened together, because when they didn't it wasn't worth paying attention to.

It may be confirmation bias. But that doesn't mean it's wrong. 

The only times, in recent memory, that crows have flown overhead and a weather change did NOT follow, was immediately after stepping out of an indoor location into the outdoors.

Otherwise, based on my experience, every time crows fly overhead, the weather changes. Since the process of weather changes blends the out-weather into the in-weather, sometimes this process takes half a minute.

 

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13 hours ago, GothSkunk said:

It may be confirmation bias. But that doesn't mean it's wrong. 

The only times, in recent memory, that crows have flown overhead and a weather change did NOT follow, was immediately after stepping out of an indoor location into the outdoors.

Otherwise, based on my experience, every time crows fly overhead, the weather changes. Since the process of weather changes blends the out-weather into the in-weather, sometimes this process takes half a minute.

 

Anecdotal experience sucks as a measure of fact.  We tend to discard information that doesn't fit our model instead of updating it.  You've already given an example where the thing that should happen every time didn't happen, you just don't want it to count because then it wouldn't happen every time.

Try this: next time you play, use a stopwatch to measure the time between seeing crows fly overhead (EVERY time you see them) and the next low-visibility condition.  Do the same for a phenomenon you think should be unrelated, like hearing that wolf-howl-like bird call, and do it until you have ten of each measurement.  If you're wrong (seeing which is more reliable than seeing if you're right), the crows should have similar or higher average time to the next weather change.

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It fits my model more often than it does not, so I'm sticking with it until a better explanation can come forward.

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@Raphael van Lierophas openly said that they don't have any correlation. They are simply for immersion's sake. Now, I'd like to see more ways that crows can interact with the environment.

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