Timber Wolf

1.14 Wolf Struggle Tests

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1 hour ago, earthy said:

In the exhausted state you seemed to experience quite a few short(<10%condition lost) struggles, which seem to heavily influence the average.

Valid point.  I may run some more to see if the average holds.

1 hour ago, earthy said:

I'm also inclined to think hatchet may not be the best choice for a test like this, given that shorter duration struggles would be more prone to variance influencing the conclusion.

The primary reason I run these tests is to find out the best way to survive them.  I'm probably going to continue to use the hatchet (which has always shown as the best weapon) in all future tests, unless I run through all the weapons again just for confirmation.  I don't think there's much to be gained by trying to only test struggles that tend to last longer.

1 hour ago, earthy said:

Do you expect the results of Normal vs Exhausted in interloper would show the same trend?

Yes, I suspect it would show the same trend.  I may do further testing to put some numbers to it.

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3 hours ago, 4djes said:

Excellent job! How can i set up a macro too?

Thanks!  I play on a PC with a game pad and use a program called Xpadder to map the mouse buttons and keys.  Macros are built into the program and can easily be configured. 

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5 hours ago, Timber Wolf said:

Thanks!  I play on a PC with a game pad and use a program called Xpadder to map the mouse buttons and keys.  Macros are built into the program and can easily be configured. 

I´m ansking you this because if i understood correctly, i can click this button (macro) and it´s like i click one button hundreds of times? Am i right?

If i am right this will help me when wolves attacks me and i have to click the left mouse button very very quick and even doing that the wolf usually wins.

Am i correct about setting a macro and when clicking it it´s like i click the left mouse button hundreds of quick times?

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20 minutes ago, 4djes said:

Am i correct about setting a macro and when clicking it it´s like i click the left mouse button hundreds of quick times?

Yep, that's pretty much how it works.

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5 hours ago, Timber Wolf said:

Yep, that's pretty much how it works.

Only game pad? No keyboard?

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10 hours ago, 4djes said:

Only game pad? No keyboard?

Yes, the Xpadder program is only for setting up a game pad.  I'm sure there are other macro program out there that could be used for keyboard/mouse, but I don't know of any off-hand. 

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17 hours ago, 4djes said:

Only game pad? No keyboard?

You can use AutoHotKey on PC with a keyboard.  I've described in this post, and there's a "left clicking" AutoHotKey script attached at the bottom of the post.  Basically, it left clicks continuously as long as you hold down the F2 button.

 

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23 hours ago, Timber Wolf said:

Yes, the Xpadder program is only for setting up a game pad.  I'm sure there are other macro program out there that could be used for keyboard/mouse, but I don't know of any off-hand. 

Thanks!

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17 hours ago, Ruruwawa said:

You can use AutoHotKey on PC with a keyboard.  I've described in this post, and there's a "left clicking" AutoHotKey script attached at the bottom of the post.  Basically, it left clicks continuously as long as you hold down the F2 button.

Thank you very much. Can i make more scripts easilly?

 

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On 10/14/2017 at 0:20 PM, Timber Wolf said:

Here's my best explanation:

Each wolf struggle will likely have multiple individual striking events, for both your character and the wolf.  The very first striking event will be the wolf's, unless you click in the very short period of time between the struggle first beginning and the wolf initially making contact with you.  

Each individual wolf striking event calculation begins by using Random Normal Distribution (the normal distribution is sometimes informally called the bell curve*) based on a predetermined condition loss value.  Then the clothing protection value is applied. *Edit: I also think the weapon choice probably has a value applied here.

Each individual character striking event calculation begins by using Random Normal Distribution based on a predetermined condition loss value for the wolf.  Then the weapon choice value is applied.

The struggle will continue until the wolf's condition falls below a particular threshold or your character dies.  Sometimes you can get in the first strike and win the struggle immediately, incurring no condition loss at all - or very little condition loss if you almost time it just right.  And I think the faster you click, the quicker you will have your next striking event. 

*Excel-Random-Normal-Distribution-01.png.ececf0b3b6bcd951e4a573680b8c2fe7.png

So is there a cap to the number of Striking Events the wolf gets? In which case, the length of the struggle doesn’t matter. If there is no cap, then that seems to indicate that the longer it takes for the player to do the minimum damage to beat the wolf (as would be the case when Exhausted, since the gauge fills slower), the higher the chance that the player will suffer more Striking Events.

Are Striking Events at random intervals? Or set? Can you measure Struggles by the number of Events you suffered? If we know each Event does about X damage, and we’ll suffer at least Y Events, then that tells us the danger of the encounter even better than the tests that show the total damage from an encounter. Because let’s face it, humans are not as consistent as a macro (and prone to panic, besides), so I know I, at least, will take longer to fight off wolves. XD

I find it hard to believe that a longer fight had no different outcome, and am wondering if, perhaps, you were simply too efficient in fighting it off to see the consequences of fighting while exhausted. :P

As always, you and your methodical testing are incredible, and the community thanks you! <3

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2 hours ago, 4djes said:

Thank you very much. Can i make more scripts easilly?

Sure.  The autohotkey site linked in that other post has full documentation.  And the script I linked is just a text file, easy to see how it's done.

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9 hours ago, WanderingPalm said:

Are Striking Events at random intervals? Or set? Can you measure Struggles by the number of Events you suffered? If we know each Event does about X damage, and we’ll suffer at least Y Events, then that tells us the danger of the encounter even better than the tests that show the total damage from an encounter.

I don't think the events are random, but rather they occur at different intervals depending on how fast you are clicking.  Each events seems to incur different amounts of condition loss, some small and some large.
 

9 hours ago, WanderingPalm said:

I find it hard to believe that a longer fight had no different outcome, and am wondering if, perhaps, you were simply too efficient in fighting it off to see the consequences of fighting while exhausted. :P

This would be true if you had to completely fill the bar in order to end the struggle.  However, I rarely ever see the bar fill all the way up in my struggles.  And when I'm exhausted I only get it about half way filled before the struggle comes to an end.

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Does anyone know what that bar measures? I'm still sort of mystified by it. It responds to button mashing, and seems tied to how tired I am, but doesn't seem at all tied to what is happening in the struggle.

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7 minutes ago, Riotintheair said:

It responds to button mashing, and seems tied to how tired I am, but doesn't seem at all tied to what is happening in the struggle.

I think you've summed it up perfectly.  I don't think what it displays is particularly meaningful.

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What if it's the probability of driving off the wolf on the next button press... High rates would then yield pretty similar results for all fatigue levels especially if the damage from the wolf is applied at discrete times - and the variance in the damage done would largely be attributed to the rng roll on wolf damage of the first bite. If that damage applies infrequently enough it really would be masking a duration of fight effect and slightly longer fights at high fatigue would be mitigated by still not being long enough to add another wolf damage tick and so would have the same point estimate on 20 trials (which have high variance as is).  Such a difference would then be more obvious at lower button press frequency. IE in your test the lifetime of the fight is short relative to wolf's damage interval, so you mask some potential affects related to that lifetime.

Or it could mean nothing :), and it may infact have little affect at any realistic button mashing speed. I'm starting to think there are ways this could be more complicated than it appears.

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13 minutes ago, Riotintheair said:

If that damage applies infrequently enough it really would be masking a duration of fight effect and slightly longer fights at high fatigue would be mitigated by still not being long enough to add another wolf damage tick and so would have the same point estimate on 20 trials (which have high variance as is).  Such a difference would then be more obvious at lower button press frequency. IE in your test the lifetime of the fight is short relative to wolf's damage interval, so you mask some potential affects related to that lifetime.

I need to run some more tests. :)

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Is it possible that there are hidden checkpoints along the bar that allow you to strike back? Obviously ignoring the one you can get right at the start of the struggle if you time it right. So when you fill the bar to that checkpoint, you get to attack, then again at the next checkpoint— though I suspect this is me simplifying it way too much. 

Perhaps it indicates the guaranteed end of the struggle. If the wolf has variable damage, then so would you, surely, so perhaps the bar is just indicating that if you roll low on every strike you get, the struggle would still end by the time you fill the bar. Or similarly, it indicates the guaranteed end of the struggle no matter your weapon (ie, the bar always displays where the struggle would end if you were bare-handed), and the fight naturally ends before the gauge is filled completely because you’re using a weapon.

Or it could be the wolf’s health. So if you fill it completely, it just dies on you. So being exhausted makes you do less damage, although you strike just as frequently as normal, which means that using the hatchet would scare it off just as easily as normal. Ehm... why the wolf heals that quickly is a mystery, if this is the case.

The world may never know.

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